Somalia Faces Security Transition Challenges
A new assessment suggests that Somali forces are not yet prepared to fully replace the African Union mission, highlighting significant gaps in operational capacity and regional coordination.
Mogadishu is facing a critical juncture in its security architecture, with a recent report indicating that national forces are not yet capable of immediately and fully assuming all responsibilities currently held by the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). The International Crisis Group (ICG) outlined these findings in a detailed assessment released this week, suggesting that while progress has been made, the infrastructure required for a complete handover is still maturing. This evaluation provides a sobering counterpoint to optimistic timelines for the full withdrawal of international troops.
The report, cited by GN auto geopolitics/africa: Somalia security, highlights specific operational weaknesses, particularly in the Lower Shabelle region. According to ICG, Somali forces have continued to rely heavily on external support to conduct effective operations in this area. This dependency suggests that a rapid exit for AUSSOM could leave a vacuum, potentially allowing Al-Shabaab to reassert control over key towns and transportation routes that are vital for economic stability and national cohesion.
Political fragmentation hinders military unity
Beyond operational capacity, the report points to deep-seated political disputes as a primary obstacle to building a unified national military. Tensions between the federal government and member states, particularly Puntland and Jubaland, have impeded efforts to integrate forces under a single command structure. These internal disagreements complicate the creation of a cohesive security strategy, making it difficult to present a unified front against insurgent threats across the country.
Bilateral agreements shape the transition
As the role of AUSSOM evolves, Somalia has established bilateral security arrangements with Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia. According to the ICG, these agreements could allow troops from these neighboring nations to remain in Somalia even if the African Union mission is scaled down or eventually ends. Additionally, the report notes the growing role of Türkiye, which has trained thousands of Somali soldiers and provided significant military support. Meanwhile, the United States is expected to continue conducting separate counterterrorism operations against Al-Shabaab, adding another layer to the complex security landscape.
Urgent planning needed for UNSOS exit
The ICG warned that if support from the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) ends without a clear transition plan, AUSSOM could struggle to maintain its current operational level. Areas vacated by international forces could become vulnerable to attacks or attempts by Al-Shabaab to retake territory. The report urges the Somali government and its international partners to urgently develop a new security plan before UNSOS support is fully phased out. A lack of preparation could create significant security gaps during the transition, particularly in the Lower and Middle Shabelle regions where dedicated protection for key infrastructure will be essential.
