Japan to Build Foreign Intelligence Agency by 2028

Japan is preparing to establish its first dedicated foreign intelligence service by 2028, a move that marks a significant shift in Tokyo's post-war security posture. According to Foreign Policy, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi intends to present this initiative to President Donald Trump during the United Nations General Assembly. The plan represents the most substantial overhaul of Japan's intelligence capabilities since 1945, aiming to create an agency comparable to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency.

The new body will focus on clandestine human intelligence operations overseas, targeting threats from China, North Korea, and Russia. While Japan has long possessed strong technical collection skills, such as signals and geospatial intelligence, it has historically lacked a systematic capability to recruit and manage human sources abroad. This gap is partly attributed to the legacy of intelligence abuses during the imperial era, which has made the government cautious about expanding such powers.

Expanding Beyond Technical Surveillance

Japanese officials recognize that satellites and intercepted communications cannot reveal every strategic intention. To address this, the government is reportedly considering reorganizing the existing Counter Terrorism Unit-Japan, established in 2015. While this unit currently focuses on terrorism-related intelligence through personnel stationed abroad, the proposed expansion would broaden its mission to general national security intelligence and significantly strengthen its human intelligence role.

Japan’s intelligence history is not without precedent. During the Cold War, listening stations like the one in Wakkanai played a crucial role in monitoring Soviet and Chinese military communications. In 1983, recordings from this station provided critical evidence regarding the shootdown of Korean Air Lines Flight 007. This episode highlighted Japan's technical prowess but also underscored the persistent challenge of protecting sensitive sources and methods from public exposure.

Strategic Implications for the Alliance

The creation of a new agency is expected to enhance Japan's contribution to the U.S.-Japan security alliance. By developing a robust human intelligence capability, Tokyo aims to provide deeper insights into the intentions of adversarial states. This move aligns with broader efforts to share the burden of intelligence gathering with Washington, thereby strengthening the bilateral partnership in an increasingly complex security environment.

As the final structure and name of the agency remain under discussion, the focus is on operational effectiveness. The transition from a primarily technical intelligence provider to one with significant human source capabilities will require careful navigation of domestic political sensitivities. Observers will watch how Japan balances the need for robust overseas intelligence with the historical constraints that have shaped its security policy for decades.

Monitoring Future Developments

The coming months will be critical for the implementation of this plan. Stakeholders should monitor legislative changes and budget allocations that support the expansion of Japan's intelligence apparatus. Additionally, the diplomatic dynamics between Tokyo and Washington will be closely watched as both nations coordinate on intelligence sharing and strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific region.