British Support for EU Rejoining Hits Record High
Public opinion in the UK has shifted significantly toward rejoining the European Union, reaching levels unseen since the 2016 referendum. However, experts warn that political framing remains the critical variable in any future vote.
Support for the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union has reached its highest level since the Brexit vote, according to recent analysis by leading British pollster Professor Sir John Curtice. In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Curtice indicated that 61 percent of Britons now say they would vote to rejoin, compared to 39 percent who prefer to remain outside the bloc. This marks a significant departure from the post-2016 landscape, where opposition to rejoining was dominant. Curtice described this shift as a historic high for the average opinion over an extended period, suggesting a fundamental change in the public mood regarding Britain's relationship with Europe.
Despite this surge in support, Curtice cautioned that a future referendum would still be a close contest. He noted that the majority of voters from the 2016 referendum have not changed their minds, with only about 18 percent of those who voted to leave now supporting a return. The shift is largely driven by demographic changes, including the entry of younger voters who were too young to participate in 2016 and are heavily in favor of rejoining. Additionally, the passing of some older voters who were more likely to support leaving has contributed to the changing balance. Curtice emphasized that while the baseline is stronger for the pro-EU side, the argument must still be actively won.
Political Silence Shapes Opinion Shift
Curtice highlighted that this shift in public opinion occurred despite a relative silence from many political parties on the issue. For years, few major parties, including the Liberal Democrats until recently, actively campaigned for rejoining. He suggested that the public has moved its position independently of political leadership. Curtice argued that if politicians were to begin making the case for rejoining with competent arguments, they could likely move the dial further in favor of the EU. This observation underscores the potential impact of political engagement on an already shifting electorate.
The analysis was conducted as part of a campaign to rebuild Britain's relationship with Europe, according to GN auto geopolitics/europe: European politics. Curtice noted that Labour’s strategy to reconnect with working-class and Leave voters in the 'red wall' had only a marginal effect on this specific issue. He warned that current political leaders, including Labour leader Keir Starmer and challenger Andy Burnham, must move beyond a 'keep quiet' strategy if they wish to capitalize on this momentum. The upcoming UK-EU summit, where deals on food exports and youth mobility are expected, may provide a platform for this renewed dialogue.
Framing the Future Referendum
Curtice warned that the outcome of any future vote would depend heavily on how the issue is framed. Public concerns remain regarding potential obligations to join the eurozone or the Schengen travel area if the UK were readmitted. He stated that while the pro-rejoining side starts from a better position than in 2016, the argument could still be lost if the framing does not address these concerns effectively. The pollster emphasized that winning the debate on framing is essential to securing a majority for rejoining.
The forward question for British politics is how parties will navigate this new landscape. As younger voters continue to enter the electorate and older voters pass away, the demographic trend favors closer ties with the EU. However, without clear political leadership and a compelling narrative, this support may not translate into policy. The coming months will likely see increased debate on the practicalities of rejoining, with the UK-EU summit serving as a key moment to test the waters for deeper integration.
