Scope Upgrades Spain Sovereign Rating to A+ with Stable Outlook
Spain's long-term sovereign debt rating rises from A to A+.
Scope Ratings raised Spain's long-term sovereign debt rating from A to A+. The outlook shifted from positive to stable. This move reflects a stronger capacity to meet financial obligations. The agency cites solid economic growth and improved public accounts. External vulnerabilities have also decreased.
GDP is projected to grow by 2.6% in the current year. Growth is expected to slow to 2.1% in 2027. The average growth rate for 2026-2031 is estimated near 2%. This exceeds the potential growth rate of 1.7%. Domestic demand and labor market strength drive this performance.
Fiscal metrics show sustained improvement
The fiscal deficit fell from 3.3% of GDP in 2023 to 2.4% in 2025. It is expected to hold near 2.3% through 2031. Public debt stood at 100.7% of GDP in 2025. Scope forecasts the ratio will drop below 92% by 2031. The average cost of the debt portfolio is 2.43%. This is lower than the 4.07% recorded in 2011.
The Ministry of Economy notes Spain now finances at a lower cost than France and Italy. Debt has reduced by nearly 26 points since early 2021. The deficit has corrected by 7.5 points since 2020. Record demand was seen in recent Treasury syndicated issues. This confirms comfortable access to financing markets.
Structural risks remain present
Scope identifies high public debt levels as a key challenge. Structural unemployment persists in the labor market. Aging population pressures increase spending requirements. Parliamentary fragmentation may limit government maneuver. These factors could constrain policy during economic or financial tension.
The government views the upgrade as recognition of economic modernization. The rating trajectory supports investor confidence. The stable outlook indicates no further changes are expected immediately. The credit profile remains resilient against potential shocks. Market access remains robust and efficient.
