Copper Holds at $14,529 as EV Sales Grow 4% and Chile Cuts Output
Global EV sales rose 4% in 2026, yet Chilean output cuts and US stockpiling keep copper prices near their five-year high.
Key points
- Global EV sales grew 4% year on year in the first eight months of 2026.
- Copper prices held at $14,529 per tonne, near their five-year high of $14,850.
- Chilean miners cut 2026 output guidance by 5% to 7% due to flooding and grade decline.
Global new energy vehicle sales rose 4% year on year in January to August 2026. This modest growth masks a deepening supply constraint in critical mineral markets.
Copper prices held at $14,529 per tonne, just 2% below the five-year peak. The price stability reflects a tight balance between demand growth and production cuts.
Chilean floods tighten global copper supply
Chilean miners target 2026 output 5% to 7% below prior guidance. El Niño-related flooding disrupts operations in the country that supplies 24% of mined copper.
Replacement tonnes cannot arrive within the current window due to declining ore grades. Aluminum, the nearest substitute, carries only 61% of copper's conductivity.
US stockpiling amplifies price premiums
The US is building a $12 billion strategic critical mineral reserve. This move pulls forward buying as Chinese buyers compete for available cargoes.
China refines 44% of global copper and 72% of lithium. Escalating tariffs would widen the premium on non-Chinese supply, benefiting producers outside the region.
Battery chemistry shift favors copper over nickel
Lithium iron phosphate batteries hold the majority of global deployment. This chemistry shift leaves nickel in a projected 2030 surplus, according to BloombergNEF.
LME nickel trades at $16,127 per tonne, 67% below its five-year peak. Copper remains the only transition metal in a projected 2030 deficit.
