Copper Prices Hit $14,800 as 2026 Mine Supply Drops
Copper trades near record highs after a 45% gain, driven by falling 2026 mine output and strong Chinese demand.
Key points
- Copper hit an all-time high of $14,800 per tonne after a 45% gain over the past 12 months.
- Global mine supply is set to decline in 2026, with Chile and the DRC leading production cuts.
- The Yangshan premium reached $121 per tonne, marking the highest level since November 2022.
Copper prices reached an all-time high of $14,800 per tonne this week. The metal trades near these peaks after gaining 45% over the past year. This surge reflects a tight market where demand outpaces supply.
Global mined production is projected to fall in 2026 for the first time since 2017. Analysts cite lower ore grades and operational setbacks as the primary causes. This supply drop threatens to widen an existing market deficit.
Chinese demand drives premium levels
The Yangshan copper premium hit $121 per tonne, its highest since November 2022. This spike signals robust consumption from China and the energy transition. Data centers and artificial infrastructure also contribute to rising global usage.
US prices rose 48% during the same twelve-month period. These gains track closely with global trends, indicating broad-based strength. Traders view these moves as a reflection of genuine physical tightness.
Chile and Congo face output cuts
Chile accounts for 23% of global copper production and faces a 6.5% drop in early 2026. The country saw a 9.4% year-on-year decline in July alone. Cochilco forecasts a total 2.6% production decrease for the full year.
BHP estimates its Escondida mine will lose between one and 1.1 million tonnes. Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo will cut 0.6 million tonnes combined. This represents nearly 2.5% of total global supply sources.
Structural bull run continues for decade
Prices have climbed 245% since 2016, moving from $4,200 to current levels. The metal posted annual declines only in 2018 and 2022 during this period. Last year alone saw a 41.5% gain, with 17% recorded so far this year.
Deutsche Bank and Citi predict supply growth of just 1% to 1.3% in 2026. This lags behind expected mining declines of 1% to 1.5% across the next two years. No new mine projects are coming online to offset these losses.
CNBC TV18 reports that banks anticipate continued price support in the near term. Markets are monitoring US-China trade talks and West Asia conflicts for further impact. These geopolitical factors may influence trade flows and risk premiums.
