Gold Futures Hold Bullish Bias Above $4,350 Ahead of Fed Decision
December gold futures defend the $4,350 support level as buyers attempt to break resistance near $4,382 ahead of today's Federal Reserve decision.
Gold futures trade above $4,350, maintaining a near-term bullish bias. December contracts reached $4,381.9 during the session before pulling back. The market holds approximately 69% of the advance from the session low. Buyers established higher lows at $4,293, $4,301.6, and $4,315.2 over the last three days. The primary objective is to clear resistance near $4,382.
Trading Concentration Defines Current Support
Volume concentrates between $4,367 and $4,368, marking the session's point of control. This area acts as the immediate floor for the current price action. According to GN markets/commodities (en-US), holding above this zone supports the formation of a higher trading base. Sellers have not undone the majority of the intraday gains. The broader resistance area remains between $4,390 and $4,396.8.
Fed Guidance Outweighs Expected Hike
A 25-basis-point rate increase is widely anticipated at today's meeting. The critical variable is the signal regarding future hikes through 2027. The dot plot provides projections rather than commitments. If the Fed indicates more tightening than expected, yields and the dollar may rise. This scenario would undermine the current gold recovery. Conversely, less restrictive guidance could support prices despite the hike.
Geopolitical Risks Create Mixed Signals
Oil prices above $100 per barrel present an inflation risk. This is linked to disruption in Middle Eastern shipping. Recent warnings from the Saudi-led coalition regarding Houthi drones add geopolitical stress. Such events can drive demand for safe-haven assets. However, sustained energy costs may reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy. Traders must watch the interaction between the dollar, bond yields, and gold. Escalation does not guarantee a lasting rally if inflation concerns dominate.
