Gold Halts Three-Week Drop as ETF Inflows Hit Eight-Day Streak
Spot gold closed at $4,378.39, ending a three-week losing streak despite high yields and a strong dollar.
Key points
- Gold closed at $4,378.39, ending a three-week slide with a 0.84% daily gain.
- Gold ETFs saw eight consecutive days of net inflows, hitting a seven-month high in holdings.
- The 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 5% and the dollar index returned to the 100 level.
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39 per ounce, up 0.84% on the day. This move ended a three-week losing streak and marked the first weekly gain since late August.
The rally occurred despite the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 5% and the dollar index returning to the 100 level. These factors typically suppress non-yielding assets like precious metals.
ETF inflows drive the recovery
Gold ETFs recorded eight consecutive sessions of net inflows, the longest streak since October 2025. Total holdings reached a seven-month high, providing structural support for prices.
This buying pressure offset the impact of the Fed’s 25bp rate hike to 3.75%–4.00%. The unanimous vote had previously suggested further tightening, which usually weighs on gold.
Yields and dollar cap upside
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.041%, its highest since 2007, before retreating. The dollar index traded as high as 100.257, establishing a firm resistance level.
Strategists view the combination of a 5% yield and a 100 dollar as twin barriers. These factors limit equity and gold rallies until they recede from current levels.
Bank targets reflect mixed outlooks
Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 year-end target to $4,650 from $4,900, keeping the 2027 target at $5,400. UBS predicts $4,600 by December 2026 and $5,000 by March 2027.
Mitrade notes that Bank of America calls long gold the best trade right now. Citi projects a range of $5,000 to $6,000 over the next 12 months.
