UniCredit Forecasts Gold Range of $4,300 to $5,000
Gold ended the week near $4,380, sitting at the bottom of UniCredit's new 2026 target zone. The bank expects higher interest rates to cap gains despite strong central bank buying.
Gold finished Friday trading at approximately $4,380 per ounce. This price sits at the lower boundary of UniCredit’s revised forecast range for the end of 2026. The bullion gained 0.75 percent during the week but fell 2.92 percent over the last month. The metal remains only 1.42 percent higher than its level at the start of the year. It has retreated significantly from its January peak near $5,594.
Rate hikes limit upside potential
UniCredit maintains a neutral to slightly constructive view on the metal. The Federal Reserve’s recent quarter-point increase to 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent raises the cost of holding gold. Gold pays no interest, so rising yields increase the income investors forgo. This dynamic creates competition from interest-bearing assets. The bank expects these higher rates to restrain further price gains.
Fiscal deficits support long-term demand
The source of rising yields matters for gold’s trajectory. UniCredit argues that steepening curves driven by fiscal deficits can support prices. This occurs if such factors weaken confidence in the US dollar. The bank cites sustained central bank purchases as a key demand driver. Recovering ETF inflows and portfolio diversification needs also provide support. Concerns about preserving purchasing power amid rising public debt remain central to the forecast.
Upper bound stays below January highs
The upper limit of UniCredit’s forecast is $5,000 per ounce. This target sits roughly 14 percent above Friday’s closing price. Even the highest point in the range remains below the January peak of $5,594. The bank assumes a modest upward bias rather than a return to previous highs. Confidence in government finances will be central to achieving the top of the range.
