Goldman Sachs Cuts 2026 Gold Target to $4,650 per Ounce
Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 gold price target to $4,650 per ounce, citing recent Federal Reserve rate hikes, while reaffirming a long-term bullish stance on the precious metal.
Key points
- Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 year-end gold target from 4,900 to 4,650 US dollars per ounce.
- Central banks are buying 91 tons of gold monthly, up from a pre-2022 average of 17 tons.
- The bank projects gold could reach 5,400 US dollars per ounce by the end of 2027.
Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2026 gold price target to 4,650 US dollars per ounce. This adjustment follows the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate increase.
The bank previously forecast a fair value of 4,900 US dollars for the same period. Current spot prices hover near 4,350 US dollars per ounce.
Rate Hikes Slow Short-Term Gains
Analyst Lina Thomas stated that tighter monetary policy will only slow price increases. She expects the long-term upward trend to remain intact despite higher rates.
Higher interest rates reduce demand for gold exchange-traded funds in the short term. Goldman Sachs believes most of this impact is already priced into the market.
Central Banks Drive Structural Demand
Central bank purchases account for nearly all of gold's potential 23 percent gain. This buying supports prices through the end of 2027 according to the report.
Monthly central bank purchases now average 91 tons of gold. This figure is significantly higher than the pre-2022 average of 17 tons per month.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Goldman Sachs projects gold prices could reach 5,400 US dollars by late 2027. The bank anticipates three Fed rate cuts between September 2027 and March 2028.
Kompas.com reports that risks to gold prices still lean upward. Strong demand for call options acts as a hedge against macroeconomic policy risks.
Revised 2026 target reflects rate pressure
The bank has adjusted its fair value estimate for gold at the end of 2026 to $4,650 per ounce, down from a previous projection of $4,900. This downward revision acknowledges the immediate headwinds created by the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate increases, which are expected to dampen short-term price momentum.
Despite this adjustment, the new target remains well above the current spot price of approximately $4,350. Analysts indicate that the tighter monetary policy is primarily slowing the pace of gains rather than reversing the underlying structural support for the asset.
