Silver Slides Below $64 on Fed Hike Fears
Silver futures opened at $63.76, marking a 0.6% decline as the Federal Reserve prepares for a two-day meeting. Market data indicates a 92.5% probability of a rate increase, exerting downward pressure on the metal.
Silver December futures opened at $63.76 per ounce on Tuesday, September 15, 2026. This level represents a 0.6% drop from Monday's close. By 7:15 a.m. ET, the price had fallen further to $63.60. The decline coincides with the start of the Federal Reserve's two-day rate-setting meeting.
Market expectations for a rate hike have intensified sharply. The CME Group FedWatch tool shows a 92.5% probability of an increase. This figure rose from 86.5% on Monday and 69.4% on Friday. The shift in sentiment has removed the bid from silver markets this morning.
Price Performance Across Timeframes
Current levels reflect mixed performance over recent periods. The price is down 3.4% from one week ago. It is down 1.9% from one month ago. However, the metal remains up 51.1% year-over-year. This growth is significant but lower than the 173.3% gain recorded on May 14.
FedWatch Data Shows Rising Odds
The probability of a rate hike increased by 6 percentage points in a single day. It jumped from 86.5% to 92.5% between Monday and Tuesday. Over the preceding week, the odds more than increased from 69.4% to 92.5%. This rapid convergence suggests traders are pricing in a hawkish outcome for the committee.
Higher rates typically strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Silver is sensitive to these macroeconomic shifts. The current price action reflects this direct correlation with monetary policy expectations.
Long-Term Forecasts Remain Divergent
Analysts at BlackRock and J.P. Morgan maintain a bullish stance. They predict silver will surpass $80 per ounce by the end of 2026. Some forecasts suggest a peak of $100 per ounce by 2030. These projections rely on sustained industrial demand and geopolitical tensions.
Volatility remains a key risk factor for investors. Silver prices topped $113 per ounce in early January 2026. The price then dropped to $77 per ounce by February. This 32% decline in weeks highlights the asset's high beta. Silver coins may see increased demand as a cheaper alternative to gold.
