Socgen Sees Gold Reaching $5,250 by Late 2027

Société Générale projects gold prices to reach $4,750 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank expects the metal to hit $5,000 by the second quarter of 2027. Its forecast extends to $5,250 by the third quarter of 2027.

The French bank maintains a 10% allocation to gold in its multi-asset portfolio. It also holds a 10% position in broader commodities. These allocations remain unchanged from the third quarter. Socgen increased its equity allocation to 58% from 55%. It reduced government bond exposure to 12% from 15%.

Central banks diversify reserves

Analysts at Société Générale cite a revival of the debasement trade as a key driver. Geopolitical fragmentation is reducing trust in traditional reserve assets. Central banks are buying gold while cutting exposure to U.S. Treasuries. This shift supports demand for alternative reserve assets.

The bank notes that global gold ETF holdings have returned to 3,000 tonnes. This level indicates that investment demand is rebuilding. Lower expected real interest rates will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. A weaker U.S. dollar provides additional support for the price.

Copper supply faces structural deficit

Socgen forecasts copper at $14,750 per tonne in the fourth quarter of 2026. The price is expected to hold at this level in the first quarter of 2027. It should rise to $15,000 in the second quarter. The bank sees $15,250 by the third quarter.

Copper mine production declined by 1.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. This may mark the first annual contraction since 2017. A decade of underinvestment has left a thin pipeline of new projects. A meaningful supply response is unlikely before 2030.

Bond yields reflect sovereign risk

Bond yields continue to trade just below 5%. Higher borrowing costs traditionally pressure non-yielding assets like gold. Socgen argues that these yields reflect mounting concerns about sovereign debt sustainability. These concerns are unlikely to disappear through the final months of the year.

The bank suggests a 60/20/20 portfolio structure for the current environment. This allocation includes 60% equities and 20% each in bonds and commodities. GN markets/policy (en-US) reports that this mix hedges against geopolitical and climate risks. The strategy prioritizes assets that perform well during periods of divergence.