Soybean Prices Drop After USDA Raises Production Estimates

Soybean futures lost 20 to 30 cents per bushel on Friday. This move erased the gains recorded on Thursday. The national average Cash Bean price fell 29 3/4 cents to reach $12.44 3/4. Soymeal futures declined by $3.20. Soybean oil futures dropped 192 points. These price adjustments followed the release of the USDA's monthly Crop Production report.

The USDA updated its soybean yield estimate to 52.8 bushels per acre. This figure is 0.1 bushels higher than the August projection. Analysts had estimated the yield at 52.4 bushels per acre. Total production increased by 16 million bushels to 4.535 billion bushels. The agency also raised harvested acres by 100,000 to 85.881 million acres. These changes signal a larger supply for the market.

Stock Levels and Export Adjustments

Old crop US stocks remained unchanged at 325 million bushels. The higher production led the USDA to cut the 2026/27 carryout estimate by 10 million bushels to 310 million bushels. US exports were raised by 10 million bushels in the same projection. Global data showed 2025/26 world ending stocks up 0.15 million metric tons to 125.27 million metric tons. New crop world stocks decreased by 0.19 million metric tons to 124.02 million metric tons.

Weekly export sales data indicated net cancellations of 175,309 metric tons for old crop beans. This result fell within the expected range of no sales to 500,000 metric tons in net cancellations. New crop sales reached 2.637 million metric tons. This figure exceeded the upper bound of the expected 1 to 2.6 million metric tons range. Of this total, 672,381 metric tons were rolled over from unshipped 2025/26 sales.

Derivative Contract Sales Performance

Soybean meal sales for the week of September 3 totaled 42,552 metric tons for the 2025/26 crop. Sales for the 2026/27 crop reached 284,535 metric tons. Both figures landed in the middle of the 150,000 to 950,000 metric ton estimate range. Bean oil sales were minimal at 83 metric tons. This was slightly above the zero lower bound of the 0 to 12,000 metric ton projection.

Market Prices and Delivery Activity

September 26 soybean contracts traded at $12.96, down 20 cents. Nearby cash prices settled at $12.44 3/4, down 29 3/4 cents. November 26 contracts fell 29 1/2 cents to $13.02 3/4. January 27 contracts dropped 29 1/4 cents to $13.18. Overnight delivery activity was light with one delivery against September soybeans. Three deliveries were issued for soybean meal and 134 for bean oil. These contracts expire on Monday. GN markets/commodities (en-US) reports that these figures reflect current market sentiment.