USDA Cuts Corn Yield 2.2 Bushels, Raises Soybean Output

The USDA cut the projected national corn yield by 2.2 bushels per acre on Friday. This adjustment brings the new estimate to 178.5 bushels per acre. Total corn production fell to 15.8 billion bushels. The previous estimate stood at 16.013 billion bushels. The agency also raised the soybean production forecast to a record 4.535 billion bushels. Soybean yield increased by 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.8 bushels per acre.

These figures were released in the September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery described the U.S. corn ending stocks data as bullish. He characterized the soybean ending stocks as neutral to slightly bullish. Wheat ending stocks remained neutral. Global corn ending stocks showed a neutral trend. Global soybean and wheat ending stocks also remained neutral.

Domestic Corn Demand Metrics

Planted acres for the 2026-27 corn crop rose to 96.8 million acres. This represents an increase of 100,000 acres from August. Harvested acres decreased by 100,000 acres to 88.5 million. Beginning stocks for the new crop year were set at 1.922 billion bushels. This figure is down 23 million bushels from the August estimate. Feed and residual use dropped to 5.95 billion bushels. Ethanol use was projected at 5.6 billion bushels.

Total domestic use for the 2026-27 crop is forecast at 12.905 billion bushels. The August estimate was 13.055 billion bushels. Corn exports remain unchanged at 3.275 billion bushels. Total usage stands at 16.18 billion bushels, down from 16.33 billion bushels. Ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop were lowered to 1.567 billion bushels. The previous estimate was 1.653 billion bushels.

Old Crop Price Projections

The farmgate price for the 2026-27 corn crop is projected at $4.80 per bushel. This marks a 30-cent increase from the August report. For the 2025-26 old crop, ending stocks were reduced to 1.922 billion bushels. The prior estimate was 1.945 billion bushels. Export totals for the old crop rose to 3.425 billion bushels. This is an increase of 25 million bushels from August. The farmgate price for this period is set at $4.15 per bushel.

Global Supply Estimates

Global beginning stocks for the 2026-27 corn crop are 301.38 million metric tons. This is up from 298.83 million metric tons in August. Global production was reported at 1,290.95 million metric tons. The August estimate was 1,298.88 million metric tons. Global exports are projected at 210.08 million metric tons. Global ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop are 272.10 million metric tons. This figure is down from 274.66 million metric tons last month.

European Union corn production is pegged at 50.6 million metric tons. Imports for the region are estimated at 23.5 million metric tons. Ukraine's production projection is 31.8 million metric tons. Ukrainian exports are set at 22 million metric tons. These data points were sourced from Agrarmärkte (Google News). The reports provide a detailed breakdown of agricultural supply and demand trends.

Soybean Output Hits Record High

In a notable shift within Friday's crop report, the agency lifted the soybean production estimate to a record 4.535 billion bushels. This increase from the previous month's figure of 4.519 billion bushels reflects a slight improvement in the national average yield, which was adjusted upward by 0.1 bushels per acre to reach 52.8 bushels.

The update stands in contrast to the downward revision for corn, where the yield projection dropped to 178.5 bushels per acre. Analysts noted that while the corn adjustments created a tighter supply outlook, the record-setting soybean numbers indicate a robust harvest for the legume sector.