US Tariff Debate Drives Global Copper Price Divergence
LME copper hit record highs as US tariff fears trigger a global inventory shift, while China spot prices remained firm despite weak demand.
London Metal Exchange copper prices reached a new historical high. This surge followed reports that the US may impose a 15 percent tariff on refined copper imports. The potential tax is scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027. A further increase to 30 percent is proposed for 2028.
Traders rushed to move metal into the United States ahead of the deadline. This activity drained inventories in non-US regions. The resulting supply tightness pushed global prices higher. China’s spot prices also rose on September 10, aligning with the broader upward trend.
US Policy Uncertainty Reshapes Supply Chains
The US Department of Commerce submitted a market assessment to the President in June 2026. This review supports the decision to levy tariffs on refined copper. The current proposal includes a 15 percent rate starting in 2027. The rate would double to 30 percent in 2028.
Market participants are monitoring these developments closely. Large volumes of copper have flowed into the US market. This pre-emptive buying has reduced available stock elsewhere. The situation creates a two-tiered global market structure.
China Inventories Hit Year-To-Date Low
China’s total refined copper spot inventory declined to a new low for the year. This drop was evident in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces. Stocks in these regions fell both week-on-week and during the week. The decrease reflects strong outbound flows to the US.
Shanghai inventories saw a slight increase during the same period. This rise was caused by higher arrivals at specific warehouses. Downstream purchasing sentiment remained subdued due to high prices. Spot trading volume in China grew only modestly on September 10.
Downstream Demand Remains Weak
Trading in China’s copper semi-finished product markets stayed weak. Elevated raw material costs and slow demand recovery suppressed activity. The upcoming peak consumption season will be a key indicator. Actual demand performance requires close attention from analysts.
