Bitcoin Price Prediction Odds Show Low Probability for $77,300 by September 2026
Market participants assign only a 40% probability to Bitcoin reaching $77,300 by September 13, 2026. The contract for $77,200 or above trades at 91 cents, indicating high confidence for that lower threshold.
The probability of Bitcoin trading at $77,300 or above on September 13, 2026, at 3am EDT stands at 40%. This figure comes from live data on the Robinhood prediction market. The contract for Bitcoin to reach $77,200 or above trades at 91 cents. The likelihood for the asset to hit $77,400 or above is priced at just 7 cents.
These odds reflect the current market consensus for the specific time window. The data is reported by GN markets/crypto (en-US). Traders can close their positions before the event resolves. The final price determination relies on CF Benchmarks Real Time Index data.
Resolution Mechanics Define Final Price
The contract resolves based on the average of 60 Real Time Index prices. These prices are collected during the last minute before expiration. The official final value is the arithmetic mean of these samples. This method reduces the impact of single-second volatility spikes.
Participants receive $1 for every contract held if their prediction is correct. Payouts typically occur within one hour of event resolution. The market operates 24 hours a day with a brief daily pause. Trading is prohibited for those with material non-public information.
Related Crypto Markets Show Diverse Expectations
Similar events for other assets are also active on the platform. One contract asks how high XRP will get in September. Another tracks the Ethereum price range for the same date and time. There is also a market for when Bitcoin will hit $150,000.
These parallel markets allow traders to hedge or speculate across multiple digital assets. The data provides a snapshot of sentiment for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other tokens. The prices listed are for informational purposes only. Live data may be delayed or incorrect.
Risk Factors Apply To All Contracts
Event contracts involve significant risk and are not suitable for everyone. Traders must consider their personal financial circumstances before participating. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply to all users. The contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.
The platform includes various exchange entities for clearing and settlement. These include KalshiEX LLC and North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. Users must read the full contract terms and conditions. Additional fees apply to trading activities on these markets.
