Trader Bets $3.2M on Bitcoin Reaching $95,000 by October
A large options position targets a specific Bitcoin price level, signaling strong conviction in a short-term rally despite high volatility risks.
Key points
- A $3.17 million long call butterfly trade targets a Bitcoin price of $95,000 by October 30.
- The position loses its full premium if Bitcoin falls below $90,000 or rises above $100,000 at expiry.
- Bitcoin trades above all major long-term moving averages, confirming a bullish technical configuration.
A trader committed $3.17 million to a long call butterfly structure. This position targets a Bitcoin price of $95,000 by the October 30 expiry date.
The strategy generates maximum profit if the asset settles near that middle strike. It loses the entire initial premium if the price falls outside the $90,000 to $100,000 range.
Structure of the option trade
The position involved buying 1,000 calls at $90,000 and 1,000 at $100,000. It simultaneously sold 2,000 calls at the $95,000 strike price.
Data from Laevitas shows the trade was executed in five separate blocks. Each block maintained the same ratio of long and short options to define the target zone.
Market sentiment supports bullish view
CoinDesk notes that risk reversals have shifted in favor of call options. This indicates broader market demand for upside exposure as prices approach $85,000.
Bitcoin currently trades above its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. Analysts describe this configuration as a bullish signal for a sustained long-term uptrend.
Volatility expectations across major tokens
Options markets price one-standard-deviation swings at 5.0% for Bitcoin through September 27. This figure is lower than the 8.9% volatility expected for XRP.
These figures measure expected price movement rather than directional bets. They reflect the market's assessment of uncertainty for the coming week.
