Markets

BER Survey Shows South African Inflation Expectations Rising

By Markets Desk · 2026-09-14 · 1 min read

A flat-vector illustration of a wooden desk surface holding a neat stack of paper currency bills and a standard office calculator. — Illustration: Tradingbird

Household inflation expectations in South Africa rose to 4.2% in the third quarter, signaling a divergence from the Reserve Bank's 3% target as policymakers prepare for next week's decision.

Household inflation expectations in South Africa rose to 4.2% in the third quarter. This figure was up from 3.6% in the previous period. The South African Reserve Bank targets 3% inflation. The gap between current expectations and the target has widened.

The Bureau for Economic Research releases this data on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank holds its policy meeting the following week. The bank raised rates in May and held them steady in July. It monitors these surveys to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched.

Oil shocks drive higher cost forecasts

Global oil price increases have affected local inflation outlooks. All four social groups surveyed by the BER reported higher expectations. Professional groups now forecast 4.4% inflation for 2026. This is up from 3.6% in the prior quarter. The bank watches two-year ahead expectations closely. Those rose to 3.9% from 3.6%.

Geopolitical tensions have raised input costs for manufacturers. The Absa Manufacturing Survey shows confidence edging up to 31. This occurred despite deteriorating operating conditions. Higher input costs squeezed margins in the second quarter. The survey tracks production, sales, and employment trends.

Retail sales growth slows in June

Stats SA publishes July retail sales figures on Wednesday. June sales growth slowed to 1.6% year on year. This was down from 2.2% in the previous month. Pharmaceuticals, hardware, and clothing categories drove the decline. Consumer confidence also fell to a negative 19 in Q2. This was the lowest level in over a year.

Governance challenges impact economic stability

The Centre for Development and Enterprise releases a report on Tuesday. It focuses on governance failures in Johannesburg. The organization argues that competent appointments are necessary for recovery. Political interference has widened the door to patronage in city administration. This impacts the country's economic hub. The report is the third in a series on metropolitan issues.

Based on reporting by Business Day, compiled by the Tradingbird desk.