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Fed Poised for First Rate Hike Since 2023

By Markets Desk · 2026-09-15 · Updated 2026-09-15 14:22 UTC
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Illustration: Tradingbird

With US core inflation rising 0.3% in August, market odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike have surged to 85%. ING confirms the data missed the pace needed to hit the 2% target, reinforcing expectations for a 25bp increase this week, though the bank predicts this will be a one-off recalibration rather than the beginning of multiple further hikes.

  • ING analysis via GN markets/inflation (en-US) highlights that August headline and core CPI prints exceeded the monthly pace required to anchor inflation at the Fed's 2% goal, with energy costs and airline fares contributing significantly to the upside. The bank notes that while the market prices in an 85% chance of a 25bp hike, it views the move as a necessary recalibration rather than the start of a prolonged tightening cycle, citing potential future easing from improved energy flows and cooling housing costs.

    Source: IndexBox

  • US core inflation rose 0.3% in August, driving market odds for a Federal Reserve rate increase to 85%. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points this week.

    Source: CommBank
Based on reporting by CommBank and IndexBox, compiled by the Tradingbird desk.

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