Oil Holds Above $102 as US Dollar Hits Eight-Week High

Brent crude stayed above US$102 a barrel on Thursday. This level followed a rebound in the previous session. The price held firm due to ongoing uncertainty regarding US-Iran diplomatic talks. The situation kept pressure on global oil supplies. The market reacted to these geopolitical tensions. The dollar also strengthened significantly during the same period.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed the United Nations General Assembly. He stated that Tehran would not yield to external threats. Iran insists on its right to develop nuclear technology for economic use. Pezeshkian further threatened to restrict navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. This move would occur if US sanctions and blockades remain in place.

US policy shifts impact diesel exports

Energy Secretary Chris Wright outlined a new approach for US exports. The administration is working with refiners on a voluntary reduction. This targets diesel shipments to overseas markets. The goal is to avoid imposing a formal ban on exports. This strategy provides flexibility in managing domestic fuel supplies. It also aims to stabilize international market dynamics.

Saudi Arabia is taking steps to resume oil exports. This involves using its key East-West pipeline infrastructure. The move helps restore disrupted supply chains in the region. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed an energy ceasefire. He spoke with US President Donald Trump about this issue. These diplomatic efforts add another layer to the energy landscape.

Strong data boosts dollar value

The US dollar index rose more than 0.4% on Wednesday. It reached an eight-week high above the 101 level. This strength came after data showed US business activity expanding. The expansion was at its fastest pace in over five years. The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI hit 58.4 in September. This was the strongest reading since July 2021.

Markets priced in a nearly 60% chance of a rate hike. This follows a 25-basis-point increase last week. Investors expect another move next month. The probability of a further increase in December stands at around 48%. These expectations reflect confidence in the US economic momentum. They influence global currency trading and investment flows.

Currency trends show recent gains

The US dollar index traded at 101.153 on September 24. This represented a 0.01% gain from the previous session. The currency gained 2.26% over the past four weeks. Over the past 12 months, the dollar rose by 2.64%. Against the Malaysian ringgit, the dollar stood at RM4.0941. This marked a 0.35% increase from the prior session.

The dollar gained 1.30% against the ringgit in one month. However, it remains 2.88% lower over the past year. Analysts project the dollar at RM4.0799 by quarter-end. They see it at RM4.0107 in one year. Investors monitor US-Iran negotiations and supply disruptions. They also watch how strong data affects Federal Reserve policy decisions.