TC Energy raises gas demand forecast by 40 percent

TC Energy has increased its North American natural gas demand forecast by 40 percent, projecting consumption to reach 181 billion cubic feet per day by 2035. The Calgary-based pipeline operator attributes this upward revision to expanding liquefied natural gas export capacity and rising electricity generation needs. This represents an 11 bcf per day increase over previous estimates, signaling a structural shift in the energy market.

The company expects domestic Canadian demand to surge by 65 percent over the next decade, driven primarily by West Coast LNG projects and industrial consumption. CEO Francois Poirier noted that power generation is becoming a critical driver of gas usage, with significant activity in Alberta and the U.S. heartland. This growth trajectory positions natural gas as a central component of the region’s energy infrastructure.

Data centers drive new power demand

The expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure is creating a new category of gas consumers. Meta announced plans for a $13-billion data center in Sturgeon County, Alberta, which will rely on a new gas-fired power plant. This facility, developed by Pembina Pipeline and Kineticor Asset Management, is projected to consume 150 million cubic feet of gas daily. RBN Energy estimates that four additional large data centers approved by 2030 could add half a billion cubic feet per day to Alberta’s domestic demand.

Beyond data centers, ongoing electrification efforts and industrial growth are contributing to rising consumption. Industry observers note that while oil production has dominated recent headlines, natural gas demand is quietly accelerating. The convergence of digital infrastructure and traditional energy needs suggests a sustained period of volume growth for gas suppliers and pipeline operators.

LNG exports anchor long-term growth

Export capacity remains the primary engine for gas demand growth. Two West Coast projects, Woodfibre LNG and Cedar LNG, are currently under construction, while final investment decisions for Phase 2 of LNG Canada and the Ksi Lisims project are expected within the next year. These facilities will significantly increase the volume of gas leaving the continent, requiring robust upstream supply and pipeline capacity to support operations.

The oilsands sector also contributes to demand, as thermal extraction processes require substantial natural gas inputs. An increase of one million barrels per day in oilsands production would add approximately 700 million cubic feet per day to consumption. According to GN auto stocks/energy-stocks: natural gas demand, these combined factors create a robust outlook for gas volumes through 2035.

Supply response supports volume expansion

Producers are responding to the demand signal with increased investment in upstream assets. Tourmaline Oil, Canada’s largest natural gas producer, and other major players are prioritizing gas output to meet the growing requirements of LNG terminals and power plants. The industry consensus indicates that supply growth will remain synchronized with demand, ensuring that the expanded infrastructure has the necessary feedstock to operate efficiently.

This alignment between supply and demand underscores the strategic importance of natural gas in the current energy mix. As data centers and export terminals come online, the volume of gas moving through pipelines will rise significantly. The market is transitioning from a period of uncertainty to one of defined growth, with clear drivers in technology and trade.