US Natural Gas Storage Deficit Widens to 143 Bcf Amid Heat
US natural gas storage remains 143 Bcf below last year levels despite cooling temperatures, with Southeast prices spiking 38.5 cents.
Key points
- Projected weekly injection of 56 Bcf expands the storage deficit to 143 Bcf versus last year.
- Southeast regional gas prices rose 38.5 cents to $3.945, the largest weekly gain among domestic regions.
- US dry gas production remained flat at 112.0 Bcf/d while power generation deliveries fell to 44.0 Bcf/d.
US natural gas storage levels continue to tighten despite a slight cooling in September temperatures. Natural Gas Intelligence projects the latest Energy Information Administration report will show a weekly injection of 56 billion cubic feet, a figure that expands the deficit versus last year to 143 billion cubic feet. This shortfall persists with only six weeks remaining before the winter heating season begins, creating a narrow margin for operational adjustments.
The storage constraint is driven by persistent demand from power generation. Although cooling degree days fell to 61 from 72 the previous week, this level remains 44% above the seasonal norm. Consequently, the Southeast regional average price surged 38.5 cents to $3.945, marking the largest weekly increase among all domestic regions. The Henry Hub index also rose 15.5 cents to $2.945, reflecting the broader market pressure from elevated thermal demand.
Supply Activity Remains Steady
Domestic supply metrics show limited movement in the near term. US dry gas production held flat at 112.0 billion cubic feet per day, while net imports from Canada decreased slightly to 4.5 billion cubic feet per day. Producers are preparing for potential output increases, adding three hydraulic fracturing spreads to the six installed the prior week. This gradual ramp-up in drilling activity may help offset the current storage deficit in the coming weeks.
Demand Adjusts With Weather
Demand patterns shifted modestly as temperatures moderated. Deliveries to US power generators dropped 0.3 billion cubic feet per day to 44.0 billion cubic feet per day. Simultaneously, volumes sent to LNG liquefaction facilities declined by 0.3 billion cubic feet per day to 18.8 billion cubic feet per day. Exports to Mexico also slipped by 0.1 billion cubic feet per day to 7.1 billion cubic feet per day, indicating a broad but slight reduction in consumption across key sectors.
Winter Balance Requires Strong Injections
Market participants face a tight deadline to restore storage balances. The median survey estimate for end-of-summer working gas stands at 3,881 billion cubic feet, just 24 billion cubic feet below the level recorded on October 31, 2025. To reach this target, the market must significantly accelerate injection rates over the final weeks of the summer season. Failure to do so will leave the system with minimal buffer entering the high-demand winter period.
