Resolute Cuts 2026 Gold Output 18% on Syama Delays

Resolute Mining shares fell 8.3% to A$1.242 on Monday after the company reduced its 2026 gold production forecast by 18.1%. The Sydney-listed miner cut its group midpoint to 215,000 ounces, removing 47,500 ounces from the previous estimate due to persistent operational issues at its Syama mine in Mali.

Simultaneously, Resolute raised its All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) for the year, narrowing the profit margin per ounce even as gold prices remain near record levels. The revision leaves the company more dependent on a strong fourth quarter to meet annual targets, a shift highlighted in reporting by TechStock².

Syama output drives annual reduction

The Syama mine, which accounts for the bulk of Resolute’s production, saw its 2026 guidance drop 23.5% to a midpoint of 155,000 ounces. Management attributed the shortfall to limited explosives availability and reduced mining fleet uptime during July and August. These months combined for only 15,500 ounces, with September tracking similarly low at approximately 15,000 ounces.

Consequently, the group’s total AISC rose 9.5% to a range of US$2,250–2,350 per ounce. Syama’s specific costs increased 14.6% to US$2,300–2,400 per ounce. This cost inflation directly erodes the financial benefit of high gold prices, as higher royalties and reduced volume absorb a larger portion of the metal-price windfall.

Cost increases compress profit spread

Under the new guidance, the operating spread at a US$4,000 gold price narrows by 10.5% compared to the previous estimate. While spot gold prices near US$4,395 restore some of this margin, the fundamental issue remains the delayed production. The company cannot simply replace missing ounces with higher prices, leaving execution risk elevated for the remainder of the year.

Resolute expects to produce 31,000 ounces from Syama in the third quarter. The fourth-quarter guidance of 45,000 to 50,000 ounces is conditional on constraints easing. Any further delays would significantly impact the group’s ability to hit its revised annual target, given the reduced buffer from earlier quarters.

Stale analyst targets face re-evaluation

Four major brokerages, including Macquarie and Canaccord Genuity, have price targets that predate Monday’s guidance cut. These targets, ranging from A$1.45 to A$2.25, implied significant upside before the production and cost revisions. With the midpoint output now lower and costs higher, these valuations are no longer supported by the current operational reality.

The shares touched A$1.185, their lowest level since mid-August, before recovering slightly. Trading volume reached 7.9 million shares, slightly above the 20-session average. The market’s reaction reflects a reassessment of the company’s near-term cash flow potential, as rising mine costs reduce the funds available for future projects like Doropo.