Four Chipmakers Face the Long AI Hold Test
Nvidia and Broadcom lead earnings growth, but investors must weigh current margins against the risk of cooling AI demand through 2030.
The artificial intelligence build-out has transformed semiconductor firms into some of the fastest-growing large businesses globally. In their most recent reported quarters, Nvidia posted a 106% year-over-year revenue increase, while Broadcom grew 86%. Micron Technology more than quadrupled its sales, and Marvell Technology, the smallest of the group, expanded revenue by 37%. However, holding these stocks through 2030 requires a different assessment than chasing quarterly growth, as AI spending is likely to moderate over the next four years.
According to analysis from GN stocks/chips, the critical factor for long-term investors is where profits remain durable within the chip supply chain. The performance of these companies will depend on their ability to maintain margins and delivery schedules even as the initial wave of AI infrastructure spending slows. Each firm faces distinct challenges in sustaining its current trajectory, ranging from platform dependency to cyclical memory pricing.
Nvidia and Broadcom Anchor the Market
Nvidia’s revenue for the fiscal second quarter of 2027, which ended in July, rose 106% to $96.2 billion, with $89 billion generated from data centers. Management indicated that fiscal 2028 revenue is expected to grow approximately 70%, a figure they attributed to supply constraints rather than a lack of demand. At a share price of roughly $212, the company trades at about 14 times its estimated fiscal 2028 earnings, a multiple that suggests the market is not pricing in significant growth beyond next year.
Broadcom is positioning itself as the primary builder of custom accelerators, with AI semiconductor revenue reaching $16.7 billion in its fiscal third quarter of 2026. This figure represents a 221% year-over-year increase, with 73% of that revenue coming from custom chips designed for single customers. CEO Hock Tan stated that the company has secured supply to double AI revenue to approximately $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and reach $230 billion the following year. The stock currently trades at about 18 times fiscal 2027 expected earnings, reflecting confidence in its ability to deliver large-scale orders on schedule.
Micron Faces Cyclical Margin Pressures
Micron Technology benefits from the high demand for memory chips, reporting fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue of $41.5 billion, which is over four times the year-earlier total. Non-GAAP gross margins surged to 84.9%, up from 39% a year earlier, and guidance for the next quarter projects revenue of about $50 billion. Despite these strong figures, the stock trades at only about 6 times fiscal 2027 earnings estimates, the lowest multiple among the four companies. This valuation implies that investors expect these historically high margins to compress as memory prices cycle downward.
Marvell Carries the Highest Valuation
Marvell Technology is pursuing a similar custom-chip strategy at a smaller scale, with fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue reaching $2.7 billion and data center revenue growing 46%. CEO Matt Murphy expects fiscal 2028 revenue to reach approximately $18 billion, up from around $12 billion in the current fiscal year, driven by more than doubling of its custom business. However, the company commands the highest valuation in the group, trading at about 33 times its expected fiscal 2028 earnings. This premium requires that its design wins continue to ramp on time to justify the price.
The long-term outlook for these semiconductor stocks hinges on their ability to sustain profitability through the next four years. Nvidia and Broadcom remain key anchors due to their structural positions in the AI supply chain, while Micron and Marvell face greater exposure to cyclical adjustments and execution risks. Investors must carefully weigh current earnings power against the likelihood of margin contraction as the AI boom matures.
