KB Securities Predicts Samsung Leads Global Operating Profit in 2026

KB Securities forecasts that Samsung Electronics will secure the top position in global operating profit among listed companies next year, surpassing Nvidia which is expected to rank second. The research firm places SK Hynix in third position, projecting that the combined operating profit of the two Korean memory giants will reach 944 trillion won, equivalent to approximately $702.1 billion. This outlook reflects a fundamental shift in the artificial intelligence industry, where the primary source of profit is transitioning from graphics processing units to memory semiconductors.

Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, stated that the semiconductor bull market remains intact and that the current environment is not suitable for reducing exposure to the sector. He emphasized that while the AI growth cycle continues, the market has entered a middle phase characterized by increased volatility. Consequently, the firm advises investors to maintain their semiconductor weightings while focusing on companies with clear earnings improvement, rather than relying on broad market momentum.

Corporate Buybacks Absorb Retail Selling Pressure

Retail investors in Korea turned net sellers for the first time in five months, offloading 5.212 trillion won of Samsung Electronics shares and 7.818 trillion won of SK Hynix stock between September 1 and 11. This selling pressure was attributed to slowing KOSPI momentum in the third quarter and regulatory tightening on leveraged exchange-traded funds. Despite this outflow, corporate entities absorbed a significant portion of the supply by purchasing 9.89 trillion won worth of SK Hynix shares during the same period.

The supportive buyback activity contributed to an 8.24% rise in SK Hynix’s stock price this month. Fundamentals remain robust, with Hana Securities reporting that average daily memory semiconductor exports surged 271% year-over-year to $1.58 billion in August. This data reinforces the view that industry fundamentals are solid, even as market sentiment fluctuates due to technical selling and regulatory changes.

Investors Rotate From Leveraged Semiconductor ETFs

Korean retail investors investing in U.S. markets shifted to net selling in September, ending a three-month streak of net buying. They offloaded $131.01 million of U.S. equities, with selling concentrated in SOXL, a 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF. During this period, $677.44 million flowed out of SOXL alone, indicating a withdrawal from high-risk leveraged products. Funds also moved into safer assets, including SGOV, a short-term Treasury ETF, which attracted $129.81 million in inflows.

This rotation reflects a broader strategy of managing volatility as the easy-money era for AI assets concludes. While the semiconductor industry cycle is expected to remain healthy through next year, investors are advised to time their entries carefully. The shift from leveraged exposure to quality technology stocks and safe-haven assets signals a more selective approach to portfolio construction in the current market environment.

Memory Exports Drive Industry Growth

The continued strength in memory semiconductor exports underpins the optimistic profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The 271% year-over-year surge in August exports highlights the critical role these companies play in the global AI infrastructure buildout. As the profit center shifts from GPUs to memory, the financial performance of these Korean giants becomes increasingly central to the broader semiconductor industry's trajectory.

KB Securities maintains that the combination of strong export data and corporate shareholder returns supports a positive outlook for the sector. However, the firm cautions that investors should remain selective, focusing on companies with demonstrable profit growth rather than assuming uniform sector-wide gains. The current market phase requires balancing the long-term AI growth cycle with the short-term realities of increased volatility and shifting investor sentiment.