Micron Earnings Ahead as Memory Price Gains Flatten

Micron Technology (MU) will release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, Sept. 30. Shares recently traded near $928, a decline of approximately 7% over the past week and roughly 25% below the 52-week high of $1,255. This pullback has prompted investors to evaluate whether the current valuation offers a buying opportunity ahead of the announcement.

However, the suspense surrounding the actual quarterly results is diminished because Micron provided detailed guidance during its June 24 report. The company projected revenue of $50 billion plus or minus $1 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 86% and earnings per share of $31 plus or minus $1. The core news on Sept. 30 will likely be the forward-looking guidance, which reflects a memory price curve that is flattening significantly.

Record results reflect prior price surges

Micron’s fiscal third quarter ended May 28, 2026, with revenue of $41.5 billion, up 74% from the previous quarter. This performance contrasts sharply with the year-ago figure of $9.3 billion. Adjusted gross margins reached 84.9%, nearly double the 39% recorded a year earlier. The upcoming quarter’s target implies a sequential revenue growth rate of approximately 21%, a sharp deceleration from the prior 74% jump.

The slowdown in growth rates is driven by the underlying economics of memory sales. In the latest filing, Micron noted that DRAM sales rose 67% sequentially, primarily due to average selling prices climbing in the low 60% range. Bit shipments, representing actual volume, grew only in the low single digits. This indicates that recent financial strength was fueled more by price inflation than by increased demand for physical memory units.

Price growth decelerates sharply in latest forecasts

TrendForce data highlights the rapid deceleration in conventional DRAM contract prices. Gains that stood at 93% to 98% in the opening quarter of 2026 are forecast to drop to 58% to 63% in the subsequent quarter. For the current quarter, expected increases have fallen to 13% to 18%. This trend suggests that record-high prices are now limiting customer affordability, particularly in PC and smartphone markets where demand is weakening.

NAND flash memory exhibits a similar trajectory. Forecasts for price increases have cooled from a 70% to 75% range in the spring to a current 10% to 15% range. While these percentages still represent growth, the rate of increase is shrinking by roughly a factor of six compared to the earlier peak. Micron’s next reporting period, extending into early December, sits further down this flattening curve, raising the possibility of near-flat prices within one or two quarters.

Valuation already reflects expected earnings decline

The stock’s current price appears to incorporate significant doubt about future performance. Micron shares trade at approximately six times the expected earnings for fiscal 2027. Even at the 52-week peak, the valuation was only about eight times those projected earnings. This suggests the market has already priced in a substantial step-down in profitability as the memory price supercycle matures.

According to GN auto stocks/technology: tech stocks, the primary driver of recent gains was price rather than volume. As the rate of price increase slows, the financial impact on revenue and margins will also decelerate. The Sept. 30 report will confirm whether the company can maintain record levels despite this cooling demand environment, but the guidance provided months ago already signals a transition from explosive growth to stabilization.