SpaceX Faces Nasdaq Rebalance and Share Overhangs
SpaceX stock may see passive inflows from an upcoming index rebalance, though the move coincides with significant lock-up expirations that could pressure the share price.
SpaceX (SPCX) is positioned for a potential shift in passive demand ahead of the Nasdaq-100 rebalancing on September 21. According to data cited by GN stocks/nasdaq, the adjustment could increase the company's index weight from 1.25% to 2.25%, potentially injecting $15.5 billion in passive inflows into the stock. This event occurs as the shares trade sideways following their June 2026 debut, remaining above the $135 initial public offering price but down roughly 12% from the $171.74 opening level.
The anticipated index-driven buying comes against a backdrop of substantial liquidity risks. More than one billion shares held by pre-IPO investors, insiders, and employees are expected to become tradable by the end of October, with an additional 1.3 billion shares potentially unlocking after the third-quarter earnings release in November. While holders may not sell all available units, as seen during the August lock-up expiration, the sheer volume of potential supply introduces a counterweight to the passive demand.
Index Methodology Changes Drive Inflows
SpaceX’s rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 was facilitated by a new
JPMorgan estimates that this expedited entry resulted in approximately $4.3 billion in passive inflows shortly after listing. However, the move drew criticism from skeptics, including Morningstar strategist Michael Field, who argued that the stock is overvalued despite the high demand that justified the fast-tracking. The company remains excluded from the S&P 500, which has refused to grant exceptions to its seasoning and financial viability requirements solely based on market capitalization.
Revenue Growth Offsets Profitability Slips
SpaceX has demonstrated strong top-line expansion, with revenue rising from $10.4 billion in 2023 to $18.7 billion in 2025. Despite this growth, profitability has fluctuated, moving from a $791 million profit in 2024 to a $4.9 billion loss in 2025. For the second quarter of 2026, the company reported $7.8 billion in revenue, a 92% year-over-year increase, while narrowing its net loss to $541 million from $1 billion in the same period last year.
The company’s liquidity position remains robust, supporting its operational needs despite the recent losses. Operating cash flow improved to $6.8 billion in 2025 from $4.5 billion in 2023. By the end of the second quarter of 2026, SpaceX held $93.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, providing a substantial buffer against the increased capital expenditures and potential market volatility associated with the upcoming share unlocks.
