Investors Expect Major AI Productivity Gains This Year
Professional investors predict that a massive surge in computational power will drive a significant portion of global economic growth within the next three years.
Senior investors managing hundreds of billions of dollars are betting on a near-term breakthrough in artificial intelligence capabilities. According to a recent survey, nearly all participants believe that a tenfold increase in the computational power used by major US model developers will unlock significant new potential for AI systems this year.
The optimism is grounded in specific financial projections. Respondents estimate that productivity gains from AI will account for approximately 22 percent of global economic growth in the current year. This view reflects a broader consensus that the recent pace of technological development is transitioning from experimental stages to tangible economic impact.
Survey Data Highlights Broad Confidence
The research, commissioned by London-based fund manager Robocap, interviewed 100 senior professionals from pension funds, insurance asset managers, and family offices. These individuals collectively oversee $513 billion in assets across eight countries, including the UK, US, and Germany. The study was conducted in May using online methodology, providing a snapshot of institutional sentiment during a period of rapid technological change.
Jonathan Cohen, founder and CIO at Robocap, noted that the advance in AI capabilities has been phenomenal. He pointed out that the computational power applied to train next-generation models is estimated to be up to 30 times greater than that used for current models. This dramatic scaling is seen as the primary driver behind the expected breakthroughs, translating weekly technological progress into real-world productivity gains.
Economic Impact Projected Over Three Years
The survey projects that the share of global growth attributable to AI will rise to an average of 30 percent within three years. A significant minority of respondents, roughly one in five, believe the impact could be even higher, potentially reaching 40 percent or more. This trajectory suggests that AI is expected to become a central pillar of macroeconomic performance rather than a niche technological trend.
Service Sectors Face Early Disruption
The benefits of this growth are not expected to be distributed evenly across all industries. Marketing and sales are predicted to be the first sectors to experience significant disruption, followed closely by professional services such as law, finance, accounting, and tax. Information technology was also highlighted by a notable portion of respondents as an early adopter.
In contrast, physical infrastructure and resource-heavy industries are seen as more resistant to immediate change. Real estate and utilities were identified as the last sectors likely to be transformed by AI and robotics. This divergence highlights a trade-off: while digital services gain efficiency rapidly, industries reliant on physical assets may see slower integration of these new computational capabilities.
