Crypto Slides as Oil Spikes and Fed Hike Odds Hit 87%
Bitcoin trades at $76,941, down 0.57% from support, as oil prices above $100 drive Fed hike probability to 87% ahead of the CLARITY Act vote.
Bitcoin stands at $76,941, placing it 0.57% above the $76,500 support level. Solana trades at $100.74, sitting 0.74% above its $100 floor. XRP is priced at $1.40, just 0.71% below the $1.41 resistance line. All four major assets show negative returns for the week. The decline occurs ahead of two major macro events. The Senate votes on the CLARITY Act at 2:15 p.m. ET on September 15. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on September 16.
Brent crude touched $110 on September 10, its highest level since mid-May. WTI traded near $102.64 on September 14. Both benchmarks rose approximately 9% during the week. Oil prices feed directly into inflation metrics. August CPI came in at 3.4% year over year. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.95% on September 10. Traders now price an 87% probability of a rate hike. This contrasts with the market expectation of a cut one month prior.
Oil Surge Drives Hike Expectations
Oman postponed talks between Gulf states and Iran on September 13. The Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline remains shut after drone strikes. These events removed expectations for cheaper oil supply. The European Central Bank adopted a hawkish tone in the same week. The combination of high oil and hawkish central banks pressures crypto assets. Investors reduce risk exposure when monetary policy uncertainty rises. The 87% hike probability leaves little room for surprise. Market positions have already adjusted to this scenario.
CLARITY Act Faces Senate Hurdle
Cloture requires 60 votes to end debate and move to the floor. Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate. At least seven Democrats must support the measure to reach cloture. Senators Lummis, Boozman, and Scott released the final text on September 13 and 14. The text includes 126 changes requested by Democrats. Polymarket traders price the bill’s passage at 29.5% this year. Kalshi traders show a higher probability at 37%. This near-coin-flip outcome creates uncertainty. Traders cannot easily price a binary political event. They cut risk instead of taking positions.
XRP Shows Relative Strength
XRP gained 40% over the past 30 days. Bitcoin rose 22.2% and Solana 33.9% over the same period. During the recent seven-day drop, XRP lost only 0.1%. Bitcoin fell 2.2% and Solana dropped 2.7%. Five spot XRP ETFs trade in the United States. These funds hold $1.58 billion in net assets. They took in $11.26 million on September 14. This inflow moves coins off exchanges and into custody. Reduced sellable supply helps steady the price. XRP briefly broke below $1.33 on September 11. It has since recovered above that level.
