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Fed Hike Probability Exceeds 90% Despite Trump Pressure

By Markets Desk · 2026-09-15 · 1 min read
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Illustration: Tradingbird

Market traders expect a rate increase on September 16. Trump threatens trade halts to force cuts. The Fed remains focused on inflation data.

Traders surveyed by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool assign a probability greater than 90% to a Federal Reserve rate hike. The central bank’s board meets on September 15 and 16. President Donald Trump demands lower rates for political gain. His pressure conflicts with current economic signals.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer prices rose 3.4% year-over-year on September 11. Gasoline costs drove much of this increase. Inflation currently outpaces wage growth. These figures suggest the Fed will not cut rates, contrary to the president’s wishes.

Trade threats target central bank independence

Trump posted on social media on September 4 that the Fed must lower rates. He labeled the board members as needing to be patriotic. He threatened to stop trading with countries holding trade deficits. This threat was repeated to reporters on September 13.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a goods and services trade deficit of $88.6 billion for July. Imports totaled $399.3 billion while exports reached $310.7 billion. The deficit rose by $17.4 billion from June. Trump had trade deficits with 97 countries in 2025.

Administration officials contradict presidential demands

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, spoke to CNN on September 13. He stated it is important for the Fed to leave things alone ahead of the election. He said the president would accept a rate increase. This statement contradicted Trump’s simultaneous threats of trade halts.

The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3. Republicans risk losing control of Congress. Voters are assessing the economic impact of trade wars and rising fuel costs. The Federal Reserve’s decision will occur seven weeks before these votes.

Political stakes rise before midterms

GN auto markets/bonds: interest rates notes that the situation is a political fracas. Trump’s actions aim to create economic chaos to force concessions. His top economic adviser advocates for Fed independence. The administration presents mixed signals to the market. Voters watch these conflicting messages closely.

Based on reporting by Yahoo, compiled by the Tradingbird desk.

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