ING Forecasts CBA to Hold Key Rate at 6.5% Next Week

ING expects the Central Bank of Azerbaijan to hold its key interest rate at 6.5% at the meeting scheduled for next Wednesday. The Dutch banking group projects no change in the benchmark rate based on current economic data.

Inflation in Azerbaijan remains stable between 5.6% and 5.8%. This level sits within the 4% plus or minus 2% target range set by the regulator. ING analysts note that these figures support a decision to keep monetary policy steady.

Inflation risks shape policy stance

Global and regional inflation trends are rising. ING believes the Central Bank may emphasize inflation risks in its official communication. The bank also signals a potential for more hawkish guidance on future monetary policy. This shift would reflect a cautious approach to maintaining price stability.

Previous rate decision details

The CBA last adjusted its policy on July 31, 2026. The board kept the key rate at 6.5% at that time. The interest rate corridor bounds remained at 5.5% and 7.5%. The decision considered actual and projected inflation dynamics. It also factored in domestic financial market developments.

An upward revision to the inflation forecast supports tighter policy. However, excess foreign currency supply over demand supports accommodative measures. The CBA stated that the balance between these opposing factors led to the decision to leave the corridor parameters unchanged. This equilibrium remains the primary driver of current monetary strategy.

Market expectations and analysis

ING’s analytical review forms the basis of this forecast. The report highlights the stability of the local economy. It suggests that the regulator will prioritize consistency in its rate path. The upcoming meeting will test this outlook against new data releases. Investors will watch for any shifts in the tone of the CBA’s statement.