Polish Industrial Output Misses August Forecast Targets

Poland’s industrial production increased by 4.3% year-on-year in August. This figure fell below the market consensus of 6.1% and the ING internal forecast of 8.3%. July’s growth rate was revised down to 4.8% from an initial 5.1%. The August result is disappointing given one extra working day and a low base effect from the prior year.

Manufacturing output growth slowed to 3.4% year-on-year in August. This compares to 4.2% in July. Energy production expanded by 10.5% and mining output rose by 18.7%. Seasonally adjusted data shows a 1.2% month-on-month decline in industrial production. This follows two months of flat monthly readings. GN markets/growth (en-US) notes that the data underscores risks to the broader GDP outlook.

Sector divergence shapes August results

Growth was driven by intermediate goods at 8.5% year-on-year. Non-durable consumer goods grew by 4.8% and capital goods by 4.7%. Durable consumer goods output fell by 7.0% and energy-related products declined by 0.5%. Electrical equipment manufacturing led gains with an 18.7% increase. Machinery and equipment production rose by 12.8%, reflecting National Recovery Plan funding.

Declines were concentrated in tobacco products at -11.7% year-on-year. Textiles fell by 4.9%, furniture by 2.3%, and motor vehicles by 1.5%. These sectors face intense competition from Chinese imports. China has become Poland’s largest trading partner, overtaking Germany. Production increased in 25 of the 34 tracked subsectors.

Producer prices accelerate in August

Producer price inflation rose to 4.2% year-on-year in August. This exceeds the 3.6% consensus and the 4.1% internal estimate. July’s rate was revised up to 3.1% from 2.8%. The acceleration stems from a base effect after a 0.5% month-on-month drop in the prior year. This year saw a 0.6% month-on-month increase.

Petroleum refining prices continued to rise for a consecutive month. This reflects higher global crude oil prices. The energy crisis persists and impacts cost structures across the industrial sector. These factors contribute to broader economic uncertainty for the coming quarters.

GDP forecast remains conservative at 3.4%

Poland’s second-quarter GDP growth was 3.9% year-on-year. This performance was strong despite Middle East conflict. However, the soft August industrial data calls for caution. Slowing wage growth and elevated fuel prices may weigh on household consumption. Consumption growth already decelerated in the second quarter.

The investment cycle supported by National Recovery Plan funds is peaking. This generates multiplier effects across the economy. Corporate investment data from the second quarter reflects this trend. Geopolitical uncertainty and the energy crisis prevent an upward revision of the 2026 GDP forecast. The conservative estimate of 3.4% growth for the year stands unchanged.