S&P Cuts Cameroon 2026 Growth Forecast to 3.5%

S&P Global Ratings cut its 2026 growth forecast for Cameroon to 3.5 percent. The agency simultaneously raised its projection for the fiscal deficit to 2.5 percent of GDP. The current account deficit estimate increased to 4.4 percent of GDP. These revisions were released alongside a rating affirmation on September 18, 2026. The long-term and short-term sovereign ratings remain at B-/B with a stable outlook.

The new figures represent a downgrade from earlier estimates. In March 2025, S&P projected an average annual growth rate of 4.3 percent for the period between 2025 and 2028. The agency previously expected fiscal deficits to average close to 1 percent of GDP over that same timeframe. The 2026 single-year forecast of 3.5 percent is lower than this multi-year average. S&P cited a sharp contraction in the hydrocarbons sector as a primary driver of the revision. Weak performance in agriculture, manufacturing, agro-industry, and construction also contributed to the lower growth outlook.

Deficits widen due to commodity pressures

Lower hydrocarbon production volumes are pressuring government revenue. Higher subsidies and weaker cocoa prices are widening both fiscal and external deficits. S&P expects the current account deficit to reach 4.4 percent of GDP in 2026. This estimate is more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund’s projection. The IMF forecast a deficit of 5.2 percent of GDP including official grants. Excluding grants, the IMF projected a deficit of 5.3 percent.

Debt trajectory set to decline after 2026

S&P expects public debt to peak in 2026 before gradually declining. The agency projects debt to fall to about 36 percent of GDP by 2029. Interest payments are expected to absorb less than 8 percent of government revenue annually between 2026 and 2029. The IMF’s projections align closely with this trajectory. The Fund forecasts public debt at 39.6 percent of GDP in 2026, dropping to 35.9 percent by 2029.

Rating affirmed despite weaker economic outlook

S&P maintained Cameroon’s sovereign ratings despite the weaker growth and wider deficits. The transfer and convertibility assessment remains at BBB-. External debt accounted for 63 percent of public debt at the end of 2025. Multilateral and bilateral creditors hold 86 percent of that external debt. S&P’s growth forecast is 0.2 percentage points higher than the IMF’s estimate. The agency’s current account deficit projection is 0.8 percentage points narrower than the Fund’s estimate. GN markets/growth (en-US) reported these institutional differences in their analysis.