Chevron CEO Warns Oil Prices Will Rise as Buffers Deplete
Chevron’s chief executive stated that oil price risks are skewed to the upside because strategic buffers are exhausted.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated that the risk of higher oil prices remains elevated over the coming months. He said the mechanisms that absorbed the initial supply shock have been used up. This assessment contradicts recent White House comments suggesting prices will fall after the November midterms. The company’s leadership believes the market lacks the flexibility to absorb further disruptions quickly.
Americans have paid approximately $97 billion more for fuel since the Iran conflict began in late February. That amount equates to roughly $740 per household, according to data cited by CNN. President Trump claimed on September 9 that prices would drop right after the election. Wirth’s remarks at a University of Texas conference on September 11 suggest that timeline is unlikely.
Market Buffers Are Exhausted
Strategic reserves and commercial inventories provided initial relief when the conflict started. The U.S. government also eased restrictions on sanctioned crude stored at sea. Wirth noted that these cushions have largely played out. The energy system no longer has the same level of shock absorption it had in February.
Attacks that disabled a major Saudi pipeline removed an estimated 2.5 million barrels of oil per day from the market. That disruption tightened a supply chain already under pressure. Wirth said it is difficult to envision a scenario where prices soften rapidly in this environment. He emphasized that the upside risk to prices remains high.
Retail Fuel Prices Hit Records
The average U.S. diesel price crossed $6 per gallon on September 10. It reached a record high of $6.23 per gallon by September 11. Gasoline prices have also risen to about $4.32 per gallon. These increases follow a period in summer when prices dipped below $4 per gallon.
Brent crude for November 2026 delivery traded near $105 a barrel around the time of the conference. West Texas Intermediate crude was just above $100 a barrel. Before the conflict began, Brent was around $70 a barrel. The current price represents a 50 percent increase from that baseline.
Political Responses Face Operational Reality
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum described the latest supply disruption as temporary. He pointed to plans for expanding Venezuelan output and U.S. refining capacity. The administration has already tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve heavily. Reserves fell below 300 million barrels by early August, down more than 100 million barrels since the start of 2026.
Chinese buyers have returned to the international market after stockpiling for months. This increased demand makes it harder for other refiners to meet global needs. Wirth’s remarks highlight a gap between political timelines and operational constraints. He did not predict when prices would stabilize, only that the previous tools for lowering costs are no longer available.
