Talbott Dominates Odds Ahead of Figueiredo Clash
The betting market has spoken with blunt clarity: Payton Talbott is the heavy favorite to defeat Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 332.
The numbers sit starkly on the board. Payton Talbott is installed at -550, while Deiveson Figueiredo rests at +410. A bettor placing a $550 stake on the American needs only a $100 return to break even, whereas the Brazilian requires a $100 risk to yield a $410 profit. The disparity is not a whisper; it is a shout. The market has leaned further toward Talbott at some books, with scans listing the best available number at -525 for the favorite and +505 for the underdog. The consensus is clear, even as the specific lines fluctuate slightly across operators.
This is not a coin flip. It is a statement of form, age, and recent trajectory. Talbott, 27, enters the Delta Center in Salt Lake City with a 5-1 record in the UFC and a broader 11-1 professional mark. He rebounded from a January 2025 decision loss to Raoni Barcelos by defeating Felipe Lima and then handling former two-division champion Henry Cejudo over three rounds at UFC 323. All three judges scored that fight 30-27 for Talbott, who landed two takedowns against the Olympic gold medal wrestler and kept the veteran working at range. The composure shown in that five-round-caliber bout suggests a fighter ready to bank rounds rather than chase a single, fragile finish.
Veteran Danger Meets Modern Range
Figueiredo is no routine underdog. The 25-7-1 veteran is a two-time UFC flyweight champion with nine knockout wins, nine submission wins, and 11 first-round finishes. His danger is acute, a sharp edge that cuts deep in the early exchanges. He moved to bantamweight in late 2023 and began that run with wins over Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon Vera. His counter-striking and submission threat remain potent, offering a path to upset the market’s projection if he can land a clean, early strike. The submission danger alone gives him a unique way to beat the odds, even if the line has shifted against him.
Yet the recent form explains the lean. Figueiredo lost a decision to Petr Yan in November 2024, suffered a knee-injury TKO loss to Cory Sandhagen in May 2025, and dropped a unanimous decision to Umar Nurmagomedov in January 2026. Song Yadong submitted him with a guillotine choke in the second round in May. Those defeats came against ranked competition, but the pattern is undeniable: he has won only once in his past five outings, a split decision over Montel Jackson. The market sees a veteran whose peak may have passed, facing a younger, more consistent opponent who has shown the ability to control distance and pace.
Salt Lake City Sets the Stage
The fight is set for October 3 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, streaming on Paramount+. The card is headlined by Natalia Silva and Wang Cong for the vacant UFC women’s flyweight title, but the bantamweight co-main event carries its own weight. Talbott’s logical pick is a decision win, leveraging his age advantage, range game, and recent momentum. Figueiredo remains the more interesting side for bettors seeking a long-shot return, especially if the number holds above +400, because his submission and counter-striking danger give him ways to beat the market’s projection. The odds tell a story of momentum and youth, but the cage has a way of rewriting the script in a single, sharp exchange.
