Nuclear LCOE Falls Below $100/MWh in NOAK Scenarios
New OECD NEA and EPRI data shows existing nuclear plants operate at $39-$64/MWh, while standardized new builds drop under $100/MWh.
Key points
- Existing nuclear plants have an LCOE of $39-$64/MWh, while NOAK large-scale projects range from $56-$87/MWh.
- Near-term first-of-a-kind nuclear projects cost roughly double the standardized NOAK versions, with SMRs seeing a 50% gap.
- Nuclear LCOE is highly sensitive to capacity factor, benefiting from low variable costs when operated at maximum efficiency.
A joint study by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and EPRI reveals that nuclear power can deliver electricity below the $100 per MWh threshold when standardized designs are deployed. The report, titled The Costs of Generating Electricity 2025, analyzes levelized cost of electricity across 21 OECD nations where current prices often exceed that mark. It identifies specific technology pathways where lower-carbon generation becomes more competitive than traditional sources.
The data distinguishes sharply between initial deployments and mature, repeated builds. Existing nuclear sites exhibit LCOE between $39/MWh and $64/MWh. Large-scale projects using nth-of-a-kind technology range from $56/MWh to $87/MWh. In contrast, near-term first-of-a-kind projects cost significantly more, with large light-water reactors ranging from $95/MWh to $168/MWh.
Cost Gap Between Initial And Standardized Builds
The primary driver of the cost disparity is the learning curve associated with construction and supply chains. First-of-a-kind projects face higher expenses due to workforce shortages and lack of construction experience. As designs are standardized and repeated, these costs decline substantially. The report notes that near-term costs are roughly double those of NOAK large light-water reactors.
Small modular reactors show a similar pattern but with a slightly different margin. Near-term SMR projects range from $94/MWh to $191/MWh, while NOAK SMRs fall between $64/MWh and $121/MWh. This represents a roughly 50 percent cost reduction for standardized SMR deployments compared to their initial counterparts. The American Nuclear Society highlights this trend as a critical factor for long-term investment decisions.
Capacity Factor Drives Nuclear Efficiency
Nuclear plants are uniquely sensitive to capacity factor because of their high fixed cost structure. The study found that LCOE decreases as facilities operate at higher capacity factors, a trend more pronounced in nuclear than in gas or coal. When operated at maximum capacity, nuclear benefits from its low variable costs, making it more competitive than intermittent sources.
Other renewable sources also show wide cost ranges depending on conditions. Onshore wind ranges from $36/MWh to $141/MWh, while solar photovoltaic spans $33/MWh to $149/MWh. Hydroelectric power varies from $33/MWh to $175/MWh. The report emphasizes that no single technology meets all national energy needs, requiring diverse mixes to ensure security and cost-effectiveness.
Policy Implications For Diverse Energy Mixes
OECD NEA Director General William Magwood cautioned that policy choices must reflect local priorities and resources. The data supports decisions but does not prescribe a single optimal technology. Countries must balance cost, security, and carbon goals when selecting their generation mix.
The report concludes that nuclear energy can provide round-the-clock carbon-free electricity under $100/MWh if the NOAK promise is realized. This positions it as a viable competitor to other low-carbon options in the long term. The analysis provides a factual basis for investors and regulators evaluating the economic viability of different power sources.
