EIA Projects 21% Solar Growth in 2026
Data center expansion drives record demand in ERCOT and MISO regions.
Key points
- EIA projects solar generation will increase 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027.
- ERCOT solar output is expected to surpass coal generation for the first time in 2026.
- MISO forecasts a 63% increase in electricity use between 2026 and 2046 driven by data centers.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects solar generation will rise 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027. This expansion coincides with a forecast 2% increase in total U.S. electricity sales to 4,135 TWh in 2026. The agency attributes this demand surge primarily to data center construction and industrial manufacturing activity.
Commercial sector electricity sales are expected to grow 3.3% in 2026, accounting for over half of the total national increase. Industrial sales are projected to rise 1.6% this year. These figures indicate that commercial and industrial entities are the primary drivers of the grid's expanding load.
Texas solar output surpasses coal
Solar growth is concentrated in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas territory. EIA expects ERCOT solar generation to add 18 TWh in 2026 and 20 TWh in 2027. Utility-scale solar is forecast to reach 78 TWh in 2026, exceeding annual coal generation for the first time.
MISO faces decades of load growth
Midcontinent Independent System Operator reports entering a period of significant load growth. MISO projects electricity use could increase 63% between 2026 and 2046. Data centers are identified as the largest source of this new demand, with estimates reaching 20 GW by 2030.
MISO added 13 TWh of solar generation in the current year and expects another 11 TWh next year. The 2025 system peak was roughly 121 GW. The agency's central trajectory highlights data centers as the dominant factor in long-term consumption trends.
National generation hits record levels
Total U.S. electricity generation is expected to increase 2.2% to a record 4,368 TWh in 2026. Another 1.7% growth is forecast for 2027. Continued solar additions are critical for supplying a grid facing its strongest demand growth in years, as noted by pv-magazine-usa.com.
