Ethiopian Opposition Forms Seven-Group Alliance to Challenge Abiy

Seven opposition factions in Ethiopia have announced the formation of a unified alliance with the explicit goal of removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. The coalition, named the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, brings together diverse political and armed groups that have previously operated independently or in conflict with federal authorities.

According to an announcement made on Sunday, the new bloc includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. The grouping also encompasses the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.

Military cooperation declared

Michael Asgedom, a spokesman for the TPLF, stated that the alliance’s cooperation is both political and military. He indicated to The Associated Press that joint military operations may become necessary to achieve the objective of removing what he described as a dictatorial regime. This statement marks a significant shift in the post-conflict landscape, as the TPLF was previously engaged in a deadly armed struggle against federal forces that ended with a peace accord in November 2022.

Asgedom further asserted that the 2022 peace agreement is no longer valid, suggesting a potential breach of the terms that concluded the war in northern Ethiopia. The federal government has faced parallel conflicts in other regions, including the Amhara and Oromia provinces, contributing to a prolonged period of instability across the country.

Government response and accusations

Zemene Kassie, chairman of the Amhara Fano National Movement, appeared on Tigray TV to announce the alliance, accusing the federal government of presiding over widespread insecurity, displacement, and human rights abuses. In response, the Ethiopian Media Authority declared Tigray TV an illegal entity on Monday, accusing the broadcaster of promoting insurgency.

The Ethiopian Media Authority’s statement highlights the tense relationship between the state and opposition media outlets. The federal government, led by Abiy’s Prosperity Party, retained power in a general election in June that was boycotted by major opposition groups. The formation of this alliance adds a new layer of complexity to Ethiopia’s internal security challenges.

Regional dynamics and future outlook

Abiy, who assumed the premiership in 2018 and received the Nobel Peace Prize for improving relations with Eritrea, now faces a consolidated opposition. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated since the 2020 conflict, partly due to disputes over access to the port of Assab. Ethiopia has also accused Eritrea of supporting rebel groups within its borders.

It remains unclear how closely the seven groups will coordinate their efforts, given their differing regional bases and historical grievances. The alliance’s ability to sustain a unified front will be a critical factor in the coming months, as the federal government continues to navigate internal security threats and diplomatic pressures. The situation underscores the fragility of the peace process and the evolving nature of political opposition in Ethiopia.