UN Report Links Foreign Arms to Sudan Conflict Escalation

A recent United Nations report indicates that external actors are significantly enabling the ongoing conflict in Sudan. According to the findings, various foreign powers continue to provide weapons, personnel, and logistical support to warring factions. This intervention has effectively transformed a civil conflict into a proxy war, where the self-interest of these states sustains the violence rather than seeking a resolution.

While the capital, Khartoum, has seen a relative lull in fighting following the recapture of areas by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), hostilities remain intense in other regions. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) maintain control over significant territories, with combat concentrated in Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile states. Both sides have increasingly relied on drone warfare, resulting in severe civilian casualties in recent months.

Escalating drone strikes on civilians

Recent incidents highlight the devastating impact of aerial attacks on non-combatants. In May, a suspected SAF drone strike on a market in West Kordofan killed 28 people, while an August attack on a court session resulted in 35 deaths. The UN Fact-Finding Mission has characterized the massacre in El Fasher, where at least 60,000 people were killed, as bearing the hallmarks of genocide due to ethnically targeted killings and widespread sexual violence.

The humanitarian situation has deteriorated into the world's largest crisis, with over 11 million people forcibly displaced. Access for aid organizations is severely restricted by security dangers and government actions, including the revocation of licenses for several civil society groups. Additionally, journalists face heightened risks, with reports indicating that nearly half of women journalists have experienced violence or harassment, hindering the reporting of on-the-ground realities.

Diplomatic gridlock and arms flow

Efforts to curb the conflict through international diplomacy have stalled due to disagreements among major powers. A US proposal to expand the arms embargo to cover drones was blocked by Russia, which maintains veto power in the Security Council. Meanwhile, Russia has shifted its support toward the SAF, trading weapons for gold and access to a potential naval base, while other states continue to supply both sides.

The UN report lists numerous countries involved in supplying arms or logistical support to either the SAF or the RSF. These include Egypt, Eritrea, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, among others. Despite widespread evidence of foreign involvement, most states involved deny their participation, leaving the international community unable to impose meaningful sanctions or enforce a ceasefire.

Uncertain trajectory for peace efforts

The persistence of foreign support complicates any path toward a negotiated settlement. As long as external interests remain entangled in the conflict, the flow of weapons is likely to continue. Observers will be watching for any shifts in the diplomatic stance of key suppliers or new UN initiatives that might bypass the current Security Council deadlock.