Israel Assesses Syria's Military Rebuild as Regional Risk

Israeli security officials have expressed growing concern over the rapid expansion of Syria’s military capabilities under President Ahmed al-Sharaa. According to assessments reported by the Jerusalem Post and cited by middle-east-online.com, Damascus is directing significant resources toward rebuilding a large standing army and acquiring advanced weapons systems. The primary worry in Jerusalem is that this reconstruction could evolve into a force capable of projecting power beyond Syria’s borders, thereby shifting the regional balance of power.

The military buildup is occurring against a backdrop of increased international engagement with the new Syrian government. Washington has moved to ease restrictions on weapons sales and financing, citing changes in leadership and policy in Damascus. This diplomatic thaw appears to be accelerating Syria’s ability to reorganize its armed forces, moving from small, fragmented units toward structured battalions and brigades, with potential for larger divisions in the future.

Shift from defensive to offensive capability

Israeli defense analysts indicate that the new Syrian army is transitioning from relatively small formations to more robust organizational structures. While Syrian forces have conducted brigade-level exercises, Israeli officials note that operational readiness remains limited at present. However, the trajectory suggests a move toward a force capable of acting across the region, including potential confrontations with Hezbollah in Lebanon and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, should political and military conditions permit.

This assessment contrasts sharply with public statements by President al-Sharaa, who has consistently emphasized a desire to avoid regional wars and focus on domestic reconstruction and stability. Al-Sharaa has also backed the sovereignty of the Lebanese state and sought security arrangements with Israel, positions that differ from the more adversarial scenarios envisaged by some Israeli security assessments.

Complex dynamics with Turkey and border tensions

Israel is also closely monitoring the evolving relationship between Damascus and Ankara. Israeli security sources describe the Turkish-Syrian relationship as more complicated than it appears publicly, with underlying disagreements over influence and the potential role of Turkish military bases in Syria. One official suggested that al-Sharaa is unlikely to quickly surrender Syrian territory or allow significant Turkish control over military infrastructure.

The situation has also prompted internal debate within Israel’s security establishment regarding past diplomatic opportunities. Some officials argue that Israel missed a chance to reach an agreement with al-Sharaa when he was in a weaker position after taking power. They contend that hesitation and a focus on other fronts prevented progress on arrangements concerning the border area and the status of the Golan Heights.

Calls for enhanced intelligence monitoring

In response to these developments, there are calls within Israel’s security establishment for closer intelligence monitoring of the Syrian military. The assessments raise questions about whether such warnings could provide a rationale for future Israeli strikes against Syrian military facilities, framed as the prevention of a potential security threat. The forward question remains whether the new Syrian state will remain a defensive actor or evolve into a regional power with the intent to challenge existing security architectures.