Criminal Governance Overlaps with State Authority in Mexico
Recent remarks by U.S. officials suggest parts of Mexico are ungoverned, but research indicates criminal groups often operate alongside state institutions rather than replacing them.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently asserted that vast territories in Mexico are not governed by the state, claiming instead that criminal organizations hold authority in these areas. Speaking in Quito, Ecuador, he warned that this threat must be confronted, implying a complete vacuum of government control. However, this characterization may overlook the complex reality on the ground, where state presence is often active but fragmented.
A growing body of research challenges the notion that criminal rule fills a void left by absent governments. According to a study cited by the GN auto geopolitics/americas: Mexico cartel desk, criminal groups frequently coexist with formal institutions, engaging in taxation, market regulation, and dispute resolution. This suggests that criminal governance is not a substitute for the state, but often a parallel or overlapping structure that interacts with local authorities.
Shared Authority in Michoacán
The state of Michoacán illustrates this dynamic clearly. Federal troops, national guard units, and local police operate alongside municipal governments, courts, and electoral bodies. Yet, these formal institutions share space with criminal organizations that impose their own rules, collect payments, and regulate economic activity. In some communities, residents have even formed self-defense groups to address security gaps, creating a layered system of local protection that operates independently of, or in tension with, the state.
Recent military actions in the region highlight the intensity of this contest. In August, security forces arrested Alfonso Fernández Magallón, a leader of the Cártel de Los Reyes, and later killed his successor, Luis Enrique Barragán Chávez. Despite these high-profile arrests, the region remains a hub of complex power dynamics where local authority is fragmented. The presence of over 1,500 soldiers and national guard troops in Los Reyes underscores that the state is present, but its authority is contested and uneven.
Expansion into Legal Agriculture
The label 'drug cartel' no longer fully captures the economic ambitions of these groups. In Michoacán and elsewhere, organized crime has diversified into mining, logging, fuel distribution, and legal agriculture. Researchers note that when the export value of commodities like avocados rises, criminal groups have strong incentives to enter these markets. This shift moves them from simple extortion or trafficking to influencing production, supply chains, and market prices within the formal economy.
Political scientists Chelsea Estancona and Lucía Tiscornia have documented how rapid growth in avocado exports attracts criminal expansion. Rather than operating in isolation, these groups integrate into local economic structures, blurring the lines between illicit and legal business. This diversification makes their influence harder to isolate and more deeply embedded in the daily lives of communities, complicating efforts to distinguish between state and criminal authority.
Widespread Regional Patterns
This overlap is not unique to Mexico. A recent study across 18 Latin American countries found that 14% of respondents reported criminal groups providing order or helping reduce crime in their areas. The authors estimate that between 77 million and 101 million people in the region experience some form of criminal governance. These findings indicate that the interaction between state and non-state actors is a common feature of political life in the region, not an anomaly.
Understanding this dynamic is crucial for policy makers. Viewing criminal groups as merely occupying empty spaces may lead to misdirected strategies. The reality is one of competition and cooperation within a shared political landscape. As the situation in Michoacán demonstrates, the challenge lies not just in removing criminal power, but in understanding how it is woven into the fabric of local governance and economic life. The next steps will likely involve deeper investigations into these overlapping authorities and the specific mechanisms of control they employ.
