Canada Faces Odds in NATO Military Leadership Vote

Ottawa is not counting on a win in the upcoming NATO vote to select the alliance’s new military leader, according to three sources familiar with the race. The chair of the NATO Military Committee is the Western alliance’s most senior military role, serving as the principal defense adviser to the civilian Secretary-General. General Jennie Carignan, Canada’s Chief of the Defence Staff, is campaigning for the position against her German counterpart, General Carsten Breuer.

An apparent lack of U.S. support has made a victory for the Canadian officer extremely difficult, the sources say. A former senior national-security official who has been speaking with top U.S. military officers indicated that American backing will not be forthcoming for General Carignan. This represents an insurmountable obstacle to her candidacy, the official stated. The Globe and Mail notes that the sources were not authorized to speak publicly about the matter and are not identified by name.

German Candidate Gains Ground

The United States appears to be backing General Breuer, the current chief of defense of the Bundeswehr. Germany has significantly increased its defense spending in recent years and is a major contributor of troops to NATO deployments. Berlin has been in discussion with the U.S. administration regarding replacing military capabilities that would disappear with a planned U.S. troop drawdown in Europe, adding weight to the German candidacy.

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Defence Minister David McGuinty have been pressing European counterparts over the summer to support General Carignan, according to defense sources in Britain and Europe. A Canadian military source suggested that General Carignan’s chances have improved recently due to the Prime Minister’s growing appeal in Europe. He is viewed as a world statesman following his call for middle-power cooperation and has made deepening ties with the European Union a major priority.

Political Context and Alliance History

NATO members are voting in Copenhagen by secret ballot during a conference of the committee. It remains unclear whether the recent electoral success of the German far-right party is influencing the choice NATO countries will make for the military committee post. The Alternative for Germany has been critical of NATO, with its co-chair previously questioning the value of Germany’s membership in the alliance.

Historically, only three Canadians have chaired the NATO Military Committee, including General Charles Foulkes, Admiral Robert Falls, and General Raymond Henault. David Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, suggested that European countries might prefer a German chief of the military committee regardless of Prime Minister Carney’s current appeal. He noted that Germany is considered a significantly more important partner to European nations than Canada.