NATO Deputy Commander Says Putin Grows Riskier as War Drags On

NATO’s deputy commander in Europe has described Russian President Vladimir Putin as increasingly willing to take dangerous risks as the war in Ukraine enters a prolonged phase. Speaking at a security conference in Tallinn, Estonia, Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer cautioned that Moscow is seeking to exploit divisions among Western allies while testing the limits of collective defense.

The assessment comes amid a surge in reported incidents involving Russian drones, missiles, and covert sabotage operations across Europe. According to reporting by yourvalley.net, these actions have forced European governments to rethink their defensive postures while trying to avoid triggering a broader confrontation.

Assessment of Evolving Russian Tactics

Stringer characterized the current geopolitical climate as a “febrile environment” where the risk of miscalculation is high. He warned that NATO members must remain disciplined in their responses, noting that Moscow may be attempting to provoke an overreaction from the alliance. This perspective aligns with concerns raised by other European leaders who fear that deliberate attacks could be disguised as accidental incidents to test Article 5 thresholds.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently suggested that Russia might target NATO nations with drone or missile strikes while claiming they were unintentional. French President Emmanuel Macron has similarly urged his government to prepare robust plans for protecting critical infrastructure against both physical attacks and cyber threats. These moves reflect a growing consensus that the nature of the threat is shifting from traditional state-on-state warfare to hybrid and asymmetric challenges.

Divergent European Security Postures

Despite the heightened warnings, not all European officials view the situation as an immediate precursor to direct conflict. A British defense official, speaking anonymously to discuss sensitive matters, stated that the UK assessment is that Putin is not currently seeking a direct confrontation with NATO. Officials in the Baltic states, which border Russia and have long advocated for a harder line, have also shown a degree of caution, preferring to avoid rhetoric that could accelerate escalation.

This divergence highlights the internal complexity within the alliance. While some leaders push for a more hawkish approach to deter Moscow, others emphasize the importance of de-escalation and diplomatic channels. The balance between these competing priorities remains a central challenge for NATO as it navigates a period of sustained instability and increased Russian aggression in European airspace and digital domains.

Rising Incident Rates and Covert Operations

The intensity of the hybrid campaign is reflected in a sharp increase in recorded incidents. Data from an interactive map tracking these activities shows a rise from 59 incidents in March 2025 to more than 210 recent cases. These incidents range from vandalism and propaganda efforts to arson, sabotage, and cyberattacks. The scale of this activity suggests a systematic effort to destabilize European societies and test defensive capabilities.

Attribution of these acts remains difficult, particularly because many operatives are reportedly recruited online by Russian intelligence services without their full knowledge of their allegiance. This lack of transparency complicates efforts for European security services to identify and dismantle plots. As the war in Ukraine continues, the forward question for the alliance is how to maintain a credible deterrent while managing the risk that a single miscalculation could spiral into a wider conflict.