El Nino Projected to Cause 450,000 Extra Heat Deaths

A powerful El Nino event is projected to cause more than 450,000 additional heat-related deaths globally over the next six months, according to a new research report. The projection, which runs until February 2027, attributes these fatalities to unusually high temperatures driven by the weather phenomenon.

The study, published by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, estimates that global land temperatures could rise by approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius. Researchers note that extremely hot days are expected to be 44 percent more frequent than in an average year, intensifying health risks worldwide.

Disproportionate impact on developing regions

Developing nations, particularly in Africa’s Sahel region, are expected to bear the heaviest burden of the event. The report projects about 66,800 additional deaths across the Sahel, with Nigeria facing the highest national toll at 31,400. Indonesia and Sudan follow with projected losses of 19,300 and 17,600, respectively.

Other heavily affected areas include the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, which are forecast to see a combined 19,400 extra deaths. India is projected to experience 15,800 additional fatalities, while Brazil is expected to face 13,300. These figures highlight the severe vulnerability of populations with limited infrastructure.

Vulnerability in low-income settings

Michael Greenstone, a co-author of the study, explained that heat poses the greatest threat where temperatures are already high and incomes are low. He noted that in richer countries, access to air conditioning, steady water supplies, and health services mitigates some of the risks associated with extreme heat.

According to Al Jazeera English, Greenstone warned that the heat risk is likely to outlast the El Nino itself, with repercussions stretching into next summer. This prolonged exposure suggests that preparedness measures must be sustained beyond the immediate peak of the weather event to protect at-risk populations.

Challenges in preparedness and funding

Experts emphasize that the projections should spur immediate action. Abhiyant Tiwari, a heat specialist at NRDC India, stated that funding and delivery of protective measures remain weak points, even in countries with sound plans on paper. He argued that the real measure of preparedness is not the number of warnings issued, but the effectiveness of protecting people and reducing preventable deaths.

The current El Nino, which began developing in June, is expected to be one of the strongest ever recorded. While the United Nations’ weather agency reported a high likelihood that the event will continue through February 2027, researchers caution that its dangers could linger into mid-2027, requiring long-term strategic responses.