Gold Rebounds to $4,380 After Weekly Low of $4,235
Gold recovers from a one-month low as oil prices fall, though Fed hawkishness caps gains.
Gold trades at $4,380. The metal is up 0.90% on the day. It rebounded from a one-month low of $4,235. This marks the first weekly gain in three weeks. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. The new rate range is 3.75% to 4.00%. This was the first increase since 2023. The US Dollar Index trades near 100.36. It is close to a seven-week high.
Oil prices fell after Saudi supply updates. The East-West pipeline repair progress helped. This eased pressure on US Treasury yields. Yields retreated from multi-year highs. The 10-year yield is around 4.95%. It remains near the 2007 high of 5.04%. Higher yields increase the cost of holding gold. The Fed signaled potential further hikes. Sixteen of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year. The median forecast is 4.1% for 2026 and 2027.
Fed outlook limits upside
Traders see a 55% chance of an October hike. This probability is based on CME FedWatch Tool data. Energy inflation risks persist. West Texas Intermediate oil is down 0.63% near $96.00. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. These factors keep Treasury yields elevated. A stronger gold recovery needs lower oil prices. It also requires lower yields or shifted Fed expectations. Central bank buying supports long-term demand.
Technical signals show consolidation
Gold trades below the Bollinger middle band. This level is at $4,421. Momentum indicators point to consolidation. The MACD reading is negative. The ADX is at 16. This suggests upside attempts are losing strength. The near-term tone is mildly bearish. According to GN auto markets/commodities: gold prices, the metal struggles to move above $4,400. Volatility remains high after the rate decision.
Upcoming events shape sentiment
The US economic calendar is light next week. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak. Their comments may clarify the October rate outlook. Middle East developments remain in focus. President Trump is expected to meet GCC leaders. This meeting is on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. It is scheduled for Tuesday. These geopolitical factors will influence oil supply and risk assets.
