Jefferies Strategist Sees Gold Reaching $10,000 per Ounce
Chris Wood argues that US fiscal constraints will force a weakening dollar, creating the conditions for gold to double from current levels to $10,000.
Gold could reach $10,000 per ounce. Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, called this outcome feasible. He made the prediction during the Jefferies India Forum 2026. The statement appeared in coverage by GN auto markets/commodities: gold prices. Wood linked the potential rally to a long-term decline in the value of the US dollar.
Gold traded at $4,348.90 per ounce on September 17. The price fell 0.88% in early trade. This drop followed a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The Fed also signaled further rate increases for the year. The metal had previously hit an all-time high of $5,589 in January.
US Fiscal Deficit Drives Strategy
Wood argued that the US cannot sustain high bond yields. The fiscal deficit is too large for the government to absorb higher borrowing costs. He stated there is no political will to cut entitlements. Consequently, the Fed lacks the ability to raise rates significantly. The market must accept that the Fed will suppress yields.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already attempted to manage yield curve pressure. These actions include an expanded bond buyback program. Wood noted that Bessent is trying to manipulate yields in the 5% to 6% range. If the bond market continues to sell off, the government will intervene. This intervention would fix yields and weaken the dollar.
Currency Weakness Supports Metal Prices
A weakening dollar benefits emerging market equities and gold. Wood identified this as a positive outcome for Indian household wealth. He also suggested a potential accounting maneuver by US authorities. The government could revalue its gold reserves. These reserves are currently valued at $32 or $42 per ounce.
Proceeds from such a revaluation could be used to buy back Treasury debt. This would effectively manage the national debt load. Wood emphasized that this scenario relies on the Fed not tightening policy aggressively. A strong dollar and rising bond yields would hurt gold prices.
Monetary Policy Risk to Outlook
Wood acknowledged a specific risk to his forecast. If Fed chair Kevin Warsh implements a severe tightening cycle, the thesis fails. A material shrinkage of the Fed balance sheet would strengthen the dollar. This would trigger a rally in bonds and a decline in gold. Wood expressed doubt that this scenario will occur.
He stated that such a move would hurt powerful vested interests. Wood found the probability of this outcome low. He said he would not believe it is happening until he sees it. The current trajectory favors a weaker dollar and higher gold prices.
