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BAK Economics Doubles Swiss GDP Growth Forecast to 1.8 Percent

By Markets Desk · 2026-09-15 · 1 min read
A serene Swiss mountain landscape with a clear blue sky and snow-capped peaks.
Illustration: Tradingbird

BAK Economics has raised its 2024 Swiss GDP growth forecast to 1.8 percent, more than doubling its previous estimate of 0.8 percent following strong second-quarter data.

BAK Economics now projects Swiss gross domestic product to expand by 1.8 percent in 2024. This figure represents more than a doubling of the institute’s prior forecast of 0.8 percent. The revision was announced on Tuesday and reflects a sharp shift in optimism for the current year.

The upward adjustment follows the federal government’s report of 1.5 percent growth for the second quarter. This performance exceeded the expectations of all analysts. Limited third-quarter indicators also suggest solid ongoing momentum in the Swiss economy.

Growth outlook remains cautious for 2027

Despite the 2024 upgrade, BAK Economics lowered its 2027 growth forecast to 1.3 percent from 1.4 percent. The institute attributes the current strength partly to pull-forward effects driven by U.S. tariff policy. These temporary dynamics do not guarantee sustained long-term expansion.

Geopolitical uncertainties and the conflict with Iran continue to weigh on business sentiment. The institute states that the predictability required for investment has not fundamentally improved. Consequently, structural growth risks remain elevated for the coming years.

Inflation and interest rate expectations

Inflation is forecast to remain low at 0.6 percent in 2026. The 2027 inflation forecast was raised slightly to 0.8 percent from 0.7 percent. These figures indicate that price pressures will remain subdued in the near term.

The Swiss National Bank is expected to raise interest rates as early as December. BAK Economics describes this move as a normalization step rather than the start of a tightening cycle. The stronger economic outlook and return to positive inflation support this policy shift.

Source context from GN markets

GN markets/growth (en-US) reports that the BAK Economics revision marks a significant change in Swiss economic sentiment. The data highlights a divergence between strong current performance and cautious long-term expectations. Market participants are monitoring these signals for investment decisions.

Based on reporting by bluewin.ch, compiled by the Tradingbird desk.

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