Wells Fargo Projects Brent Crude Averages 79.30 Dollars by 2027

Wells Fargo projects Brent crude oil to average 79.30 dollars per barrel in 2027. This figure represents a 24 percent decline from the recent settlement price. Brent futures closed at 103.87 dollars on Friday. The price fell 0.9 percent for the day and 0.7 percent for the week. Market participants reacted to reports of partial flow resumption through the East-West pipeline.

The bank expects prices to drop below the 80 dollar threshold starting in the second quarter of 2027. This forecast assumes a sustained easing of supply pressures. Current inventory levels remain low, which complicates this outlook. Exchange Rates UK notes that the bank's model relies on weaker global demand and fading supply constraints.

Quarterly Price Path Declines Sharply

Wells Fargo estimates the third quarter of 2026 will average 90.70 dollars. The fourth quarter of 2026 is projected at 92 dollars. The first quarter of 2027 will see an average of 84 dollars. The second quarter of 2027 drops to 79 dollars, crossing the key psychological level. The third and fourth quarters of 2027 follow at 77.70 and 76.30 dollars respectively.

These figures represent quarterly averages of daily closes for the front contract. Individual trading sessions may deviate significantly from these targets. The 79.30 dollar full-year estimate aligns closely with Goldman Sachs. That bank forecasts an 80 dollar average for the same period.

Inflation Expectations Reflect Supply Relief

The bank links lower oil prices to broader economic trends. Inflation is expected to remain elevated before easing next year. The average inflation rate for 2027 is projected at 4 percent. Tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on demand. Fading supply pressures should contribute to this disinflationary trend.

Fragile Inventories Threaten Price Targets

Wells Fargo cautions that the supply position remains fragile. Oil and product inventories sit below pre-conflict levels. Limited refining capacity and ongoing disruptions keep energy prices vulnerable. Temporary shipping relief does not equal sustained inventory rebuilding. Persistent shortages could prevent prices from reaching the sub-80 dollar averages.