Africa's Nuclear Ambitions Face Financing and Regulatory Hurdles
Egypt and South Africa lead Africa's nuclear expansion with concrete construction progress, while Ghana and Uganda prepare regulatory frameworks for small modular reactor deployment by 2030.
Africa's electricity demand is projected to triple by 2050, prompting a strategic shift toward nuclear energy. The continent is currently bifurcating into two distinct groups: nations with active construction sites and those in the regulatory preparation phase. This divergence highlights a critical gap between political announcements and operational reality, where only Egypt and South Africa have secured the physical infrastructure and financing necessary for near-term grid integration.
The transition relies on small modular reactors (SMRs) to offer faster deployment and lower costs than traditional large-scale units. However, the viability of these projects depends entirely on demonstrated progress in legal frameworks, grid preparedness, and vendor agreements. The analysis from the Energy for Growth Hub and Third Way categorizes readiness based on tangible milestones rather than intent, revealing that most African nations remain in the early stages of the International Atomic Energy Agency's milestones process.
Egypt and South Africa Drive Construction
Egypt is the only African country with a nuclear plant under active construction, with the El Dabaa facility expected to add 4.8 gigawatts of capacity by 2030. Russian financing and technical support underpin the project, which includes the supply of reactor pressure vessels for the first two units. The installation of the pressure vessel for Unit 2 in July 2026 marks a significant engineering milestone, moving the project closer to its target of supplying 9% of the national electricity mix.
South Africa is leveraging its existing Koeberg station to anchor a broader expansion strategy. The government approved a long-term supply plan in October 2025 targeting over 5 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity. Eskom, the state utility, received environmental authorization in August 2025 to build a new plant in the Western Cape, a permit sought since 2017. Concurrently, the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation launched a call for technology partners for SMR deployment, signaling a move beyond the historic Pebble Bed Modular Reactor program.
Ghana and Uganda Prepare Regulatory Groundwork
Ghana is positioned as the leading contender among non-construction nations, having signed non-binding agreements with NuScale and China National Nuclear Corporation in 2024. The country is currently advancing through Phase 2 of the IAEA milestones process and is working with the United States to establish a 123 Agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation. This regulatory progress is designed to secure a reliable SMR supply chain, targeting commissioning in the mid-2030s.
Uganda has set an ambitious target of 24 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2040, with the first plant planned for the Buyende region by 2031. A contract signed in May 2025 with a South Korean agency initiated a 26-month site evaluation to assess geological and environmental suitability. Unlike the immediate construction in Egypt, Uganda's progress is currently focused on the foundational site assessment and legal frameworks required to attract vendor investment.
Financing and Vendor Agreements Remain Key
The gap between readiness and deployment is primarily financial. While Egypt benefits from direct Russian financing and South Africa utilizes state-backed mechanisms, countries like Ghana and Morocco rely on non-binding agreements that lack immediate capital commitment. Morocco, despite operating a research reactor and signing cooperation deals with Russia and China, has not yet secured the specific project financing required to move from planning to construction, leaving its timeline uncertain compared to its neighbors.
