Kazakhstan Balances AI Ties with US and China

Kazakhstan finds itself in a unique geopolitical position, being the only nation to have signed onto both the American-led Pax Silica initiative and China’s World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization. This dual participation has long been a cornerstone of its multivector foreign policy, allowing the country to maintain economic and technological ties with both superpowers. However, this strategy is now under increasing strain as the United States and China intensify their competition for influence over the emerging artificial intelligence economy.

The United States has begun signaling that participation in its AI coalition should be exclusive. According to a draft State Department letter reviewed by Reuters, Washington is preparing to inform dozens of countries that they must choose between the competing frameworks. The letter warns that joining China’s rival framework could result in exclusion from the US-led group, framing membership in Pax Silica as a serious commitment rather than a simple diplomatic gesture. While the letter had not been formally sent at the time of reporting, the message highlights the growing difficulty for nations attempting to hedge their bets in the AI sector.

Washington Demands Exclusive Alliances

The push for exclusivity stems from US concerns over China’s expanding influence in AI technology and critical supply chains. Pax Silica, launched in late 2025, aims to secure reliable sources for minerals, semiconductors, and energy infrastructure required for AI development. With 25 signatories including the European Union and Japan, the initiative represents a significant bloc of Western and allied nations. Kazakhstan’s entry in June made it the first Central Asian country to join, a move that likely appealed to Almaty given its vast reserves of critical minerals needed for advanced tech. For the US, securing these resources is a strategic priority to prevent reliance on Chinese supply chains.

Beijing Promotes Open Access

China, through the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, presents a contrasting vision. Established in Shanghai with 29 member states, WAICO focuses on international cooperation in AI governance and standards. Beijing promotes open-weight AI models, positioning them as a more accessible alternative for countries that cannot afford or access leading proprietary systems. This approach resonates with Kazakhstan, which views itself as a bridge between East and West. President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev recently stated that AI should serve humanity and that countries deserve fair access to modern technology, aligning his country’s stance with Beijing’s emphasis on an open international system.

The trade-off for Kazakhstan is significant. While Pax Silica offers potential access to US-led investment and technology partnerships, WAICO provides a platform for broader international collaboration and a counterweight to Western dominance. The Chinese embassy in Washington has criticized the US for politicizing trade and technology, urging countries not to be forced into binary choices. For Kazakhstan, the risk lies in alienating either partner, potentially limiting its access to crucial technology, investment, or diplomatic support. As AI becomes more intertwined with national security and infrastructure, the pressure to choose a side is likely to intensify, testing the limits of Almaty’s traditional neutrality.